American Dream No More

Published in El Universalmas
(Mexico) on 21 March 2012
by Emilio Zebadua (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Lisa Steward. Edited by Gillian Palmer.
Yesterday in the state of Illinois, near the middle of the U.S., they voted to elect the GOP candidate to the White House. But in reality the presidential race was resolved months ago, outside the electoral process. The November election will be won by the incumbent President Barack Obama, without a Democratic challenger and most likely against the indefinable Republican candidate, Mitt Romney.

Until now the electoral process has centered around the Republican Party’s internal contest. The frontrunner has always been Romney, a multimillionaire entrepreneur with links to corporate banking, mergers and acquisitions. During his time as governor of Massachusetts, he ruled alongside and on behalf of the business sector; as it happens, he occupies a moderate position in the U.S. political spectrum. And for Romney, this fact is precisely the problem. The “center” which he represents is too far to the left of the highly organized neoconservative Republican Party base, one made up of victims of the mortgage crisis, people behind in their payments, those without access to medical care, members of evangelical church support groups, workers with reduced or flat salaries and considerable unemployment risks or small business owners in danger of bankruptcy.

The conservative base is collectively sponsored by special interest industries such as arms manufacturers, retail and consumer sectors, insurance companies as well as what is left of the protectionist factions (with the exception of the automotive industry and including independent oil companies), among others.

For these right-wing entrepreneurs, Romney’s link to Wall Street puts a damper on his aspirations. That’s why they have sought out a candidate to the right of him — anyone will do, really: from Sarah Palin, charismatic enough to carry the most radical camp but deemed unable to deliver by her financial backers, to Rick Perry, who as Texas governor possessed the natural base from which to garner support from inside the Republican establishment. Since the George W. Bush presidency, diverse business interests have put forth candidates (Mike Huckabee, Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul, Michelle Bachmann), all of whom have generated a scant amount of supporters and votes and certainly not enough to lessen the flow of funds from the financial wing of the GOP, who all the while have never stopped backing Romney.

The latest challenger to emerge from the most reactionary of the radical right wing has been Rick Santorum, who began to weave his web of support among the religious right, an interest group that has been actively funding candidates for the past decade. He was even prepared to lose his 2006 reelection as senator of Pennsylvania in exchange for the backing of these groups. In depressed economies like those in states like Illinois, parts of the middle class, small businesses and impoverished workers have cast their votes for Santorum in order to prevent the banks from dominating the entire Republican Party. These groups don’t have the money to win, but they can prevent Romney’s victory from being a landslide.

The nomination is not at stake, just Romney’s popularity. That’s why he doesn’t pose a definitive threat to the White House. He lacks the support from the extreme right — although he doesn’t actually need it as long as he consolidates the center or those to the right of the national spectrum, where his approval has been partial or insufficient at best. Obama is solidly entrenched in the center, yet he has not stopped inching to the right since he began his presidency.

Romney intends to replace Obama without changing the current government’s policies. This is what will assure his defeat, rendering him not only unattractive, but too costly, for the coalition of business interests, bankers and industrialists who support the present fiscal policy, the withdrawal from Iraq and Afghanistan and the remainder of the bank bailouts. Why bother replacing Obama when he has done everything in his power to maintain the political status quo, which at the moment assures attractive bonds and rates of return on Wall Street, even though the rest of the country hasn’t yet emerged from the economic recession? It’s no wonder the elections aren’t generating much enthusiasm.

The author has a doctorate in law.


Ayer votaron en el estado de Illinois, en el centro de Estados Unidos, para elegir al candidato del Partido Republicano a la Casa Blanca. Pero la carrera presidencial se resolvió ya hace muchos meses, y fuera de los circuitos electorales. La elección de noviembre la ganará (el presidente estadounidense, Barack) Obama, sin contendiente interno demócrata y muy probablemente contra Mitt Romney, un candidato republicano desdibujado.
Hasta ahora el proceso electoral se ha enfocado en la contienda interna del Partido Republicano. El puntero siempre ha sido Romney, un empresario multimillonario ligado a la banca de fusiones, quiebras y adquisiciones. Ex gobernador de Massachusetts donde gobernó con y para el sector financiero, ocupa por consecuencia el “centro” del espectro político de EU. El problema para Romney es precisamente ése. El “centro” que él ocupa está demasiado a la izquierda del grupo político más organizado del Partido Republicano, formado por las víctimas de la crisis hipotecaria, atrasados en sus pagos con los bancos, sin acceso a servicios médicos, miembros de las redes de apoyo de las iglesias evangélicas, con salarios comprimidos o de plano con riesgo de desempleo o quiebra de sus empresas pequeñas.
Las bases conservadoras están a su vez patrocinadas por sectores de la industria armamentista, de consumo, empresas de seguros, lo que queda del sector proteccionista (excluyendo la industria automotriz, pero incluyendo empresas petroleras independientes), entre otros.
Para estos empresarios-de-derecha, la liga con los bancos de Wall Street condena las aspiraciones de Romney. Por eso han buscado un candidato a su derecha, a quien sea en realidad: desde Sarah Palin, carismática frente a las bases más radicales pero sin la formalidad para cumplirle a quienes la podrían financiar, hasta Rick Perry, quien como gobernador de Texas tenía en principio la base natural para un desafío desde el interior del establishment republicano. Después de la presidencia de George W. Bush, diversas fracciones empresariales han impulsado candidatos (Mike Huckabee, Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul, Michelle Bachmann) que sólo han generado una fracción de apoyos y votos. Nunca suficientes para detener el dinero del ala financiera del Partido Republicano, que nunca ha decaído en su patrocinio a Romney.
El más reciente desafío del ala más reaccionaria tiene como candidato a Rick Santorum, que empezó a tejer sus redes de apoyo entre los grupos religiosos de derecha y quienes los patrocinan en la industria desde hace más de media década. Incluso estuvo dispuesto a perder su reelección como senador de Pennsylvania en 2006, con tal de consolidar el patrocinio de estos grupos. Con una economía deprimida en estados como Illinois, partes de la clase media, pequeños empresarios y trabajadores empobrecidos le han dado su voto a Santorum para que los banqueros no se queden con todo el Partido Republicano. Estos grupos no tienen el dinero para ganar, pero sí para impedir que la victoria de Romney sea jamás contundente.
La candidatura no está en riesgo para Romney, sólo su popularidad. Por eso no representa un desafío definitivo para la Casa Blanca. No cuenta con la derecha extrema, aunque no la necesitaría si estuviera consolidado en el centro o en la derecha del espectro nacional. Pero ahí su apoyo es parcial e insuficiente. Obama está sólidamente establecido en el centro y no ha dejado de moverse hacia la derecha desde que asumió la presidencia.
Romney busca reemplazar a Obama, pero con el mismo programa de gobierno. Esto es lo que asegura su futura derrota, pues lo hace poco atractivo y demasiado caro para la coalición de empresarios, banqueros e industriales que ya apoyan la política fiscal actual, el repliegue de Irak y Afganistán y el balance del rescate bancario. Para qué cambiar a Obama si ha hecho todo lo que ha podido para mantener un rumbo político que asegura bonos y tasas de retorno atractivas en Wall Street, aunque el resto del país aún no haya salido de los efectos de la recesión económica. Con razón las elecciones no generan mucho entusiasmo.
El autor es Doctor en Derecho


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