The Second Round
Published in El Universal
(Mexico) on 15 October 2012
by Gabriel Guerra Castellanos (link to
original)
Tomorrow, the second debate between the candidates for the American presidency will take place. After the surprising results of the first debate, in which challenger Mitt Romney overshadowed President Obama, the dynamic of the race has changed significantly, and those of us who argued that the first debate would not have much impact on the race were forced to change our views.
Contrary to expectations, Romney had a much better performance. Meanwhile, Obama seemed distracted, disconnected and acted like he did not want to be there. In that debate there was enough tired body language from Obama and enough fluidity and articulation from Romney to give a jolt to things and squarely position the challenger in the final stage of the race.
The impact of the debate was not only felt in the polls or in the enthusiasm shown by the parties and the election campaigns, but also in donations, without which a candidate is not likely to succeed. Those close to Romney, who were not resigned to losing but were at least skeptical before, now think that the odds are in their favor and that the White House is within their grasp. Meanwhile, the Democrats, who could not believe what they saw that night, found an injection of enthusiasm into their campaign from the aggressive and even mocking performance of Vice President Joe Biden, in his debate against Paul Ryan, in which there may not have been a clear winner, but both came to win, and Biden played the polar opposite of what Obama had been one week earlier.
Today, the polls show a virtual tie in the election and a diminished but still clear advantage for Obama. The states that are really in play are small, and it seems that Romney has not been able to close the gap in some key states like Colorado, Florida, Virginia and, particularly, Ohio. But it does not seem inconceivable that he could [close the gap], because the recent trend has been to decrease the president’s margins.
Besides the math (which still favors Obama) and the enthusiasm level of the campaigns (in which Romney has an advantage), in this last stage there are various other factors that could determine the result:
1. Money. Without it, a campaign has no stamina. Romney’s donors are enthusiastic; Obama’s are worried.
2. The two debates to come. Without ruling out the possibility of a blunder, or a grave error, which could be disastrous to either candidate, the expectations today are very different. The people and the media will be observing Obama under a magnifying glass. Romney, meanwhile, who comfortably exceeded expectations in the first debate, will not have the low expectations that surrounded him in that debate — where everyone heavily favored Obama — in his favor. Now the public will expect him to behave at the level of the president, and there will be little margin for error, because surely he will run into an Obama, who if not combative, will at least be awake.
3. The economy. The recovery has been weak but persistent, and the indicators of unemployment, growth and consumer confidence, to name three, can still jump for better or for worse and thereby move voters’ preferences. In such a tight election it could be enough to change the balance.
4. The incalculables. In the United States they are called the “October surprises,” and refer to any unexpected or last minute surprises, from international or domestic crises, to revelations about the personal or family life of the candidates. They can be devastating because there is little time to react to or discredit them.
Although diminished by inertia, not momentum, Obama still has the advantage. He can win, but to do so he needs to be awake tomorrow night.
Contrary to expectations, Romney had a much better performance. Meanwhile, Obama seemed distracted, disconnected and acted like he did not want to be there. In that debate there was enough tired body language from Obama and enough fluidity and articulation from Romney to give a jolt to things and squarely position the challenger in the final stage of the race.
The impact of the debate was not only felt in the polls or in the enthusiasm shown by the parties and the election campaigns, but also in donations, without which a candidate is not likely to succeed. Those close to Romney, who were not resigned to losing but were at least skeptical before, now think that the odds are in their favor and that the White House is within their grasp. Meanwhile, the Democrats, who could not believe what they saw that night, found an injection of enthusiasm into their campaign from the aggressive and even mocking performance of Vice President Joe Biden, in his debate against Paul Ryan, in which there may not have been a clear winner, but both came to win, and Biden played the polar opposite of what Obama had been one week earlier.
Today, the polls show a virtual tie in the election and a diminished but still clear advantage for Obama. The states that are really in play are small, and it seems that Romney has not been able to close the gap in some key states like Colorado, Florida, Virginia and, particularly, Ohio. But it does not seem inconceivable that he could [close the gap], because the recent trend has been to decrease the president’s margins.
Besides the math (which still favors Obama) and the enthusiasm level of the campaigns (in which Romney has an advantage), in this last stage there are various other factors that could determine the result:
1. Money. Without it, a campaign has no stamina. Romney’s donors are enthusiastic; Obama’s are worried.
2. The two debates to come. Without ruling out the possibility of a blunder, or a grave error, which could be disastrous to either candidate, the expectations today are very different. The people and the media will be observing Obama under a magnifying glass. Romney, meanwhile, who comfortably exceeded expectations in the first debate, will not have the low expectations that surrounded him in that debate — where everyone heavily favored Obama — in his favor. Now the public will expect him to behave at the level of the president, and there will be little margin for error, because surely he will run into an Obama, who if not combative, will at least be awake.
3. The economy. The recovery has been weak but persistent, and the indicators of unemployment, growth and consumer confidence, to name three, can still jump for better or for worse and thereby move voters’ preferences. In such a tight election it could be enough to change the balance.
4. The incalculables. In the United States they are called the “October surprises,” and refer to any unexpected or last minute surprises, from international or domestic crises, to revelations about the personal or family life of the candidates. They can be devastating because there is little time to react to or discredit them.
Although diminished by inertia, not momentum, Obama still has the advantage. He can win, but to do so he needs to be awake tomorrow night.