America between Israel’s Burdens and Arabs’ Benefits

Followers of the Trumpian policy of America will notice a soft turn toward the Arabs and a sense of aversion or discomfort toward Israel due to many factors and developments. Nevertheless, this does not mean that the U.S. is abandoning Israel nor that there is a profound, radical shift in its stance. Rather, it is a kind of balancing act through which the U.S. today recognizes that it is, first and foremost, a country of interests.

This equation has begun to tilt in favor of the Arabs, not out of a belief in their legitimate rights within the framework of justice and international law — by no means. Instead, it is because its interests dictate it, or let's say interests impose their own mechanisms and laws. It is an American pivot toward its interests with the Arabs, without breaching its commitments to Israel — a state of being explicitly concerned with its own security, safety and stability.

At first glance, this equation may seem contradictory and illogical. However, the major transformations that have affected the region since the second Gulf War and the Madrid Peace Conference, in addition to what was called the Arab Spring, have made this seemingly illogical equation an effective and fruitful one for both sides, though not to the same degree.

There is no doubt that the moral cost of U.S. support for Israel in all situations, based on the principle "support Israel, right or wrong," is high, especially in the age of modern media.

However, this is not the underlying reason; the U.S. is more concerned with materialistic costs. Israel has lost its functional role amid these major transformations and no longer provides immense benefit to the West. Instead, it has become a heavy burden, costly in financial, military and moral terms. This is particularly true because the Arab states are no longer considered adversarial to U.S. and Western interests.

The prevailing dynamic now is one of friendly relationships, a sharing of mutual interests and agreements beneficial to both sides, if with differing interests and aspirations for each party. Therefore, under these circumstances, the interest-driven West, with the U.S. in the lead, is fully aware that its future lies with the Arabs and not with Israel.

At the same time, it realizes it cannot abandon Israel to an uncertain fate. Therefore, the only solution is to get rid of the Israeli conservative wing and reach some sort of settlement for the Palestinian issue — a settlement that remains unclear despite all these years, growing increasingly ambiguous day by day.

How does Israel benefit America today? That is the question constantly in the minds of American decisionmakers. This question has become more salient recently, following the war in Gaza. Logic suggests that the region no longer needs a colonial spearhead — a role Israel played for a long time and is trying to revive as much as possible. The equations have changed. And the rules of the game will inevitably change as well.

Let's not forget that for the U.S., Israel is a renter state that subsists on direct support from the West, particularly from the United States. Billions in direct financial aid, open-ended military support, a glaring political umbrella and endless facilitations are provided — all without benefits that match or even come close to being justified in light of the radical changes in the region. The most recent of those include the fall of the Bashar Assad regime and Iran's turmoil and having its arms trimmed. The efforts in this direction are ongoing.

The U.S. is seeking to reshape its strategy with the Arabs, which necessarily makes them more influential and grants them greater political maneuverability. We have witnessed the Arab-Saudi influence in unprecedentedly pushing toward the recognition of a Palestinian state — an influence that was nearly impossible two decades ago.

Yet, the more pressing question is this: Do the Arabs today realize the full extent of their actual influence and their ability to alter the course of many fundamental issues? It is essential that the Arabs fully recognize this and leverage it in a way that serves their interests and contributes to the stability and future of the region.

I do not see this as beyond our reach, but it does require greater astuteness, patience and perseverance.