Xi’s Meetings with Trump and Putin Make China an Obligatory Stop for Diplomacy*

In the Cold War, the U.S. occupied the apex of the dynamic triangle, playing China and Russia off against each other. Today it's Beijing that occupies this function.

Last week I promised that we would speak about the U.S. president’s visit to China, but it might be more interesting to compare the contrasts with the Russian leader.

Xi Jinping received Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin in the same room, with the same military honors and with the same children waving flags. The identical choreography was deliberate, but what matters is in the seams which Beijing purposely left visible.

The most commented-upon difference was in the protocol. Trump was received at the airport by Vice President Han Zheng, a ceremonial position outside the decision nucleus of the Communist Party. Putin was also received by Han, but was joined by Chancellor Wang Yi. In the formal hierarchy, Han has a superior position, but in the hierarchy of real power, Wang carries more weight.

Beijing calibrated the protocol so that each visitor would read the message most suited to them, without anyone being able to complain of inferior treatment. With Trump, Xi sought stability, bringing the American to the Temple of the Sky and to the gardens of Zhongnanhai, a rare gesture that fed Trump’s appetite for exclusive treatment.

The visit didn’t end with a joint statement along with a signing ceremony. The understandings were announced separately, including the purchase of 200 Boeing airplanes and $17 billion in agricultural products. It is not yet clear when these deals will be finalized.

With Putin, there was less personal pomp and more institutional substance. The two countries issued a joint statement of about 10,000 words and more than 40 agreements.

The most revealing contrast is not in the ceremonial formalities, but in what each delegation brought with them. The American delegation included 18 executives from Apple, Tesla and Boeing. The Russian delegation came with five deputy prime ministers and eight ministers, with a focus on oil, energy and banking. Trump was seeking to make deals. Putin was seeking a gas pipeline.

The Power of Siberia 2 [gas pipeline] would transport 50 billion cubic meters of gas per year from Siberia to China via Mongolia. It was conceived to redirect the gas which supplied Europe, cut by sanctions after the Ukraine invasion. The war between the United States and Iran, which closed the Strait of Hormuz, gave Putin a new argument to sell himself as a trustworthy long-term supplier.

Putin left Beijing with warm wishes and no agreement. The Kremlin spoke about “general understandings about the parameters” of the project, but without a timeline or financial figures. The Chinese want the Russians close enough to preserve the strategic partnership, but with enough distance so as not to finance a weakened ally with irreversible commitments.

The joint 47-page manifesto draws from the Russian lexicon more than that of the Chinese, with clear Russian concessions adhering to the principle of One China. At the same time, it criticizes Trump’s Iron Dome and condemns Western sanctions, a problem which affects the Kremlin a lot more than Beijing. Putin managed to get Xi’s signature, but no check.

During the Cold War, the United States occupied the apex of this triangular dynamic, pitting China and the USSR against each other. Today, it is Beijing that occupies that apex — not because it manipulates the two powers, but because it has become an obligatory stop for diplomacy.

The fact that the Chinese leader had received an American president and a Russian in the same week says less about hospitality and more about the reordering of power that is already underway.

*Editor’s note: This article is available in its original language with a paid subscription.