Afghanizing the US-Iran War
Donald Trump has returned to destroying Iran’s civilian infrastructure and capabilities — airports, bridges, fuel stations and more. During the first weeks of U.S.-Israeli aggression against Iran, he spoke of erasing the entire Iranian civilization from existence.
Back then, the domestic American and international reaction was sharp, forcing him to back down. Now, no voice rises to denounce the war crime Washington is committing. On the contrary, some close to the U.S. president say: The terms "war crime" and the like are outdated descriptions. The battlefield now is harsher and more brutal.
So why does the West erupt in anger at Vladimir Putin if he strikes civilian targets in Ukraine? Trump’s return to his crimes reflects confusion, despair and an inability to put an end to the war that Benjamin Netanyahu has dragged him into.
Yes, Iran has been severely damaged after enduring more than 13,000 military strikes, but it has held firm. In fact, according to American reports, it has rebuilt some of its capabilities and has not been knocked out. Trump entered the war thinking it was, as the British journalist and international security specialist Nick Paton Walsh put it, like a “Coke Zero” can — he thought he could drink the can without worrying about the calories. Iran was not like that. It was full of extremely harmful calories. He had no plan for dealing with the calories of this war — not for the day after, nor the month after, nor the months ahead. He wanted a blitzkrieg. But Iran drew him in and forced him to continue. Here we are in the middle of the fifth month, with no signs that an end is near.
Some believe what is happening is a war of attrition. But it is closer to a permanent war that neither side can end. It may resemble the Afghanistan war or a new form of endless wars. The Taliban was a movement, not a state. Yet it humiliated America and eventually forced it to withdraw. Iran is a state capable of holding firm, and it has all the means to endure and persist. The current aggression against it has confirmed that American power has limits. Trump may brandish the threat of escalating his air campaign or even seizing strategic Iranian islands, but reality forces him to swallow his hollow threats and lose his credibility. It is enough for oil prices to rise for him to change his plans. His eye is on the American consumer. Every dollar increase in the price of a barrel of oil means a decline in his popularity, which has already dropped to very low levels. The November midterm elections are approaching. He will become a lame duck if the Republican Party loses them.
What Trump wants now is to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The irony is that it was open to international navigation before the aggression. In other words, he cannot even return to the pre-war situation. According to the memorandum of understanding with Tehran, the two sides were supposed to agree on the future of Iran’s nuclear program by Aug. 17. That now seems like a sick fantasy. Trump’s mind is in a state of chaos, as are his policies and decisions. He has not achieved a single one of the goals he set out to accomplish. He has no choice but to continue the war, not at the same pace as in the beginning, but in a way that saves face. America is sleepwalking toward a new Afghanistan.
Back then, the domestic American and international reaction was sharp, forcing him to back down. Now, no voice rises to denounce the war crime Washington is committing. On the contrary, some close to the U.S. president say: The terms "war crime" and the like are outdated descriptions. The battlefield now is harsher and more brutal.
So why does the West erupt in anger at Vladimir Putin if he strikes civilian targets in Ukraine? Trump’s return to his crimes reflects confusion, despair and an inability to put an end to the war that Benjamin Netanyahu has dragged him into.
Yes, Iran has been severely damaged after enduring more than 13,000 military strikes, but it has held firm. In fact, according to American reports, it has rebuilt some of its capabilities and has not been knocked out. Trump entered the war thinking it was, as the British journalist and international security specialist Nick Paton Walsh put it, like a “Coke Zero” can — he thought he could drink the can without worrying about the calories. Iran was not like that. It was full of extremely harmful calories. He had no plan for dealing with the calories of this war — not for the day after, nor the month after, nor the months ahead. He wanted a blitzkrieg. But Iran drew him in and forced him to continue. Here we are in the middle of the fifth month, with no signs that an end is near.
Some believe what is happening is a war of attrition. But it is closer to a permanent war that neither side can end. It may resemble the Afghanistan war or a new form of endless wars. The Taliban was a movement, not a state. Yet it humiliated America and eventually forced it to withdraw. Iran is a state capable of holding firm, and it has all the means to endure and persist. The current aggression against it has confirmed that American power has limits. Trump may brandish the threat of escalating his air campaign or even seizing strategic Iranian islands, but reality forces him to swallow his hollow threats and lose his credibility. It is enough for oil prices to rise for him to change his plans. His eye is on the American consumer. Every dollar increase in the price of a barrel of oil means a decline in his popularity, which has already dropped to very low levels. The November midterm elections are approaching. He will become a lame duck if the Republican Party loses them.
What Trump wants now is to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The irony is that it was open to international navigation before the aggression. In other words, he cannot even return to the pre-war situation. According to the memorandum of understanding with Tehran, the two sides were supposed to agree on the future of Iran’s nuclear program by Aug. 17. That now seems like a sick fantasy. Trump’s mind is in a state of chaos, as are his policies and decisions. He has not achieved a single one of the goals he set out to accomplish. He has no choice but to continue the war, not at the same pace as in the beginning, but in a way that saves face. America is sleepwalking toward a new Afghanistan.
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