The Three U.S. Presidential Candidates and Us

Everywhere I’ve gone in the last few weeks I have found an overwhelming majority of people who were contacted by opinion polls expressing their hope that Barack Obama wins the next American presidential election. I can understand this fervor for Obama by many in our region and in other regions such as Africa and Latin America and in the general opinion of Europeans. I had not agreed with the view that this excitement was an expression of gloating and payback for the ruling class in America more than a rational preference for a man pursuing ideas and solutions for the problems that touch the interests of other Americans.

Although I don’t agree with that view, I don’t deny that there are some truths to this claim that deserves not to be ignored. For example, there seems to be a mix sometimes in popular opinion between the rising hatred for the current President George Bush and the increase in criticism of American policy in general since the fall of the Soviet Union and the attempt by Washington to impose a new unipolar world system.

What is certain is that the election campaign has garnered an interest by people worldwide not seen for such a campaign in the past. It’s worth it to explain the reasons for such an increased interest.

1- The fact that American policy, in its diplomatic, military, and economic power, if to a lesser extent, remains shameless. And by this word I mean its excessive ambitions, the viciousness of its behaviors, the cruelty of its practices, and perhaps as well the greatness of its defeats. If not defeats than the irrelevance of its victories despite the sheer amount it has spent on armaments and wars and in its preaching of a certain ideology.

2- Because of the increase in the resources used to finance the campaign and the intensity of popular participation and the diverse new sources and types of media. The election campaign has sparked the curiosity of popular opinion world-wide, and especially in the Middle East and in the other regions which do not enjoy democracy along the Western model. It has also sparked an intense discussion in America about different domestic and foreign issues. I remember hearing an important Arab thinker saying that the biggest thing that has drawn him to this campaign is the rising level of debate and discussion of topics due to the the dependence of the three candidates on several different academic, media, and research centers which have a great weight in the political and cultural life of America.

3- The interesting diversity in the personalities of the three candidates and their backgrounds. This election since its beginning has sparked the interest of opinion leaders in all parts of the World because of the presence of a young black candidate, a middle-aged woman candidate , and an old white candidate. In addition to this fact, each candidate combines their personality with other interesting aspects. Obama, the black candidate, was born to a white Christian mother and a Muslim man from Africa, Barack himself being a Christian belonging to a protestant denomination. His presence in the race is a surprise to all of those who never thought that the hegemony of the white man over the political life of America would ever come to an end. His behavior during the campaign has been another surprise to all those who expected him to surrender to the pressure of the white establishment in America, and therefore to all of those who expected that his candidacy and his campaigns discourse would lead to a “cultural and political revolution” in the ranks of African Americans.

It was thought in the beginning that Hillary Clinton would not endure long in the campaign without keeping her husband, former President Bill Clinton, at her side, but she has actually persisted and even had the courage to sideline him even when she felt that his popularity with women would come at the expense of her popularity with them. It is undeniable that Hillary has proven to have an unprecedented boldness and an enormous rhetorical ability and that she will leave her mark on the course of American democracy. But it is also undeniable that she has not succeeded in gaining popularity outside of America. World public opinion, and the majority of it that we know of in Asia and the Islamic World, are not ready to accept that it will be a woman who will sit in the Oval Office and who will decide by herself the fate of the World. There still exists in the United States among military leaders a doubt that they have expressed over their ability to guaranty their absolute support and blind obedience from all of its soldiers and officers to a small woman who would be their Commander in Chief.

As for Senator McCain, the announcement of his candidacy caused something of a shock in many public opinion-making circles, as the senator has, since the first days of his campaign, shown himself to be the successor to President Bush in his total commitment to his foreign policy and his complete dedication to his policies aimed at the economy. A commitment, he claims, without any of the drawbacks caused by Bush’s personality. His campaign marks in fact a more extreme version of his foreign policy, especially when it comes to issues like the war against Islam under the banner of a War on terror and a war on Iraq (which he contends could last for 100 years or longer), his support for Israel at the expense of all Arabs and of the Palestinians in particular. At the same time McCain has continued to insist that he is not identical to Bush and Bush continues to suggest to his audience that McCain avoids him and doesn’t want to be seen with him. This supposedly comes as per instructions from the Republican party.

These are the reasons for the interest the world has in this election campaign as opposed to the level of interest in the past, and perhaps as well explains the range of opinions by government concerning it.

I can understand some of what goes on in the minds of politicians in the Middle East and perhaps in Asia, Russia, and some of the countries in Europe. The most important thing going on in their heads is their conviction that it will fall upon the shoulders of the next president of the United States to balance the rise of Asia and the fall of America, or perhaps to be more precise the responsibility to be prepared to realize the fact that it has lost its spot at the top. In the best of scenarios some hope that this will come only after Washington succeeds in preventing China from rising or slowing its rise a few more decades, or that they will somehow be able to jump start elements of American power in the next eight years. And in the worst of scenarios others expect that this will happen when the summit of power is big enough to hold the rising and the falling powers at the same time: The rise of China and Russia, and perhaps India and Brazil and the European Union and the fall of America.

Therefore politicians in China and Russia and in Europe have a reason to be more sensitive towards the three presidential candidates. Whichever one of them inherits the responsibility of managing America’s interests in the contest for predominance will have to do so while doing the least damage to America. For that reason one has to take a serious look at the plans of candidate McCain, especially in regards to the long term war against Iraq and Iran and perhaps all Muslims and Arabs. One has to look seriously at the comments by Hillary as well, especially those about obliterating Iran from existence. And at the same time one has to take into account Barack Obama’s plans, not only because he talks at length about an understanding with Iran and North Korea, but also especially because he does not have any previous experience in foreign policy and would need a significant amount of time in order to gain the support of the Military establishment and the armaments industry and the elite on the extreme right and Israeli lobby groups, because without the support of these factions or at least a majority of them he will not have any significant political achievements in international relations, and especially with Asia and the Middle East.

Some commentators have seen China as hoping that McCain wins because he will follow the path of Bush: the path which has let China advance quickly to become a greater power without entering into a serious military or diplomatic confrontation. Others think that what public opinion in the Middle East sees as a virtue in Obama, the governments in Asia and in the West see as faults. There is hesitation in some official circles in several capitols, including Washington, that Barack has not walked through the halls of bureaucratic corruption and politics in Washington, as opposed to Hillary and McCain. The same halls Hillary walked through when she was the First Lady in the White House and especially during her attempt to convince the Washington bureaucracy of her health plan, and through which McCain has walked for many years in his time in the senate.

Many politicians inside America would not welcome a president from outside the “inner circle”, or a president not connected to the relationships and vested interests of lobbyists and action groups. It’s hard to convince these people that Obama is working to change America from the inside or change its reputation abroad. Especially because he wants to change some of the habits of its bureaucracy and politics and lobbyists and the nature of their current relationships and influence over the process of policy-making.

It is true that he is working towards that goal, but who can say that the majority of the government in the World, and especially the governments of the Middle East and the elite that rules them, want America to change in this way?

an Egyptian Writer