Obama and Europe

While Europe may know Barack Obama well, the opposite is not true. The U.S. Democratic presidential candidate, who on Thursday, 24 July, embarks on a short European tour – Berlin, Paris and London-–indicated at the end of 2007 the had only made one visit to London, on the way to Russia. He is regularly reproached for not convening the Senate sub-committee on Europe, which he chairs. A few months ago, he still had yet to request a meeting with the E.U. representative in Washington.

According to polls, European populations are by a large majority pro-Obama, but their governments have a few reasons to be more cautious. On trade, the candidate has proven protectionist. He has taken a more nuanced position since the primaries, but Europeans can fear that a Congress with a Democratic majority will put on more pressure. “Obama perhaps is a ‘global’ candidate, but his positions aren’t that at all,” is the opinion of many experts, among them Reginald Dale of the Center for Strategic [sic] International Studies.

On a nuclear Iran, the Europeans were excited to see him propose, a year ago, a no-strings-attached meeting with President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, while they agreed on a strategy of refusal as long as Tehran does not freeze its uranium enrichment program. Obama now says that the meeting should not be considered “without preparation.” In Israel, he repeated on Wednesday, 23 July, that he does not want to forgo any “option” to prevent Iran from having the bomb, even though the mention of the military option is judged to be unproductive by the majority of Europeans and by one of his official advisors, Zbigniew Brzezinski.

“Obama is trying to win on two fronts,” says Reginald Dale. “If he feels that he is being criticized, he changes, but he never gives up his original position.” Finally, the Europeans can fear the calls for help from Obama, notably in Afghanistan. As in 2004, during the Bush-Kerry confrontation, some analysts believe that John McCain, the Republican candidate, will ask for less war effort from the Europeans.