One American Out of Three Voted Before the Elections

Since early voting has been available in order to limit the number of absentees, many Americans have already gone to the polls. This system could be profitable for the democratic candidate, who is at the head of the opinion polls.

Jerry has voted, and he wants this to remain secret. When he leaves the county’s service committee in Arlington (Virginia), in the suburbs of Washington, he takes out his scarf with an Obama badge on.

For the occasion, Jerry has pinned on his chest a military medal his father had given him, during his service from 1950 to 1960: “Because he would have voted for Barack Obama and because mine and Obama’s values are those that my father has taught me”, he says very keenly.

Jerry likes symbols: the reason why he voted during the week-end is because an African-American friend of his deceased this morning. “Initially, I thought I would vote on Tuesday, he explains. But since I have lost a close friend of mine, I thought I should vote today, and give her homage.”

In Virginia, voting has started on September 22nd

In Virginia, like in some other thirty states, Americans have been able to vote at the polls for a few weeks now. Each state defines the methods the polls should use, and by anticipating a record voters turnout- we are talking about more than 130 million voters this year, against 122 million in 2004 and 105 million in 2000-, the initiatives to allow to spread the vote have multiplied in order to limit, if possible, problems on the big day. It is about encouraging the ‘civicism’ of the American people, especially for those who cannot miss work on the election day.

In Virginia, voting started on September 22nd, the earliest it has ever started in this state. Only those who will be absent on November 4th can vote early. The voters have to go to the local service administration committees. There will be no need to justify anything: you only have the tick the box accordingly: “studies”, “work” or “vacation”.

The more the voters, the stronger will Obama’s chances be

Everything is done in order to simplify the task of voting within a good ambiance: on Halloween day, the personnel in charge had to dress up as pacifists, with bandannas on their head and “peace and love” necklaces…

Judging by the queues, this worked. Jerry had to wait for two hours. Same for Jennifer, who in order to go vote, left her newborn with her husband. “These past days, this has just been increasing, explains Kendall, the voter’s guide. Almost 2 000 people have voted each day, compared to a hundred people voting on the first few days.”

In total, the experts estimate that one out of three Americans has already voted this evening, even before Election Day. Speculations are on the right track. The democrats are rubbing their hands: on a general opinion, the more the voters, the stronger will be the chances for the democratic candidate. The Obama wave has brought a great number of new voters on the lists.

200,000 registered voters have voted early

Traditionally, the newly registered vote even less than the others… But “not this time”, the confirms to QG the democrat of Chicago, the numbers of early voting anticipate the support. So much that a more precise analysis has given a trait that the votes have been leaning more on the left.

When Americans have to register to vote, they have to declare whether they are “democrat”, “independent” or “republican”, this will also allow them to participate in the primaries.

This public information allows us to know that in Florida, for example, as of this week end, the number of democratic voters is larger than the republican voters. This gives a lead of 200,000 registered voters, which delights the democrats.

The electoral campaign is mostly led within the “red” America

Regarding McCain, we doubt his partial analysis, and we prefer to insist on the last polls, which indicate that the race is tightening, particularly in certain key states. In Virginia, the Barack Obama head position has gone from eight points to six in the past few days (see the last polls on the American election).

The republicans confirm that the undecided will become a majority in their field, because of their profile- this is the majority of the rural population in America, those who voted for George W. Bush.

In sum, each side wants to be confident. The candidates continue to criss cross the decisive states: the campaign is essentially being lead within the “red” America, the America of the republicans. Barack Obama and McCain multiply their steps in Virginia, Ohio, Iowa, Colorado or Missouri, the states that have been ‘harvested’ by George W. Bush in 2004 but which a strong mobilization of African Americans and the young could turn around.

One more sign that the republican candidate has given up conquering the democratic states (except Pennsylvania) and that he is on a defensive position. His strategy consists in checking Obama’s push on conservative territory and stealing Pennsylvania from him in order to compensate for his losses. A scenario which looks more like a chess game.