Major Shakeup in the Korean Peninsula?

Obama’s policy towards the Korean Peninsula projected to continue six-party talks along with bilateral talks with North Korea.

Spotlight on the Influence of Joe Biden who has Close Ties with Korean Figures

The American presidential election, which resulted in a landslide victory by the Democratic Party candidate Barack Obama, is projected to bring about significant change in the international environment surrounding the Korean Peninsula. The regime change after 8 years will lead to the decline of the Bush administration’s foreign policy that sought the spread of American values based on its superior power and the revival of international cooperation and multilateralism that the Democratic Party has traditionally emphasized. Likewise, in his policy toward the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia, President-elect Obama is likely to turn toward a more proactive involvement policy such as direct negotiations with North Korea, in contrast to the Bush administration’s practice of raising tensions by designating the country as part of the “Axis of Evil” early on in his term.

Vice President Joe Biden Will Have Significant Influence

The Korean Peninsula policy of the Obama camp is projected to be significantly influenced by Vice President-elect Joe Biden, who possesses a wealth of foreign policy experience in the Democratic Party. An experienced six-term senator and the chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Biden has deep friendly relations with such Korean luminaries as former president Kim Dae Jung, former Foreign Minister Han Seung-joo and the Grand National Party’s U.S. expert Representative Park Jin. Moreover, Frank Jannuzi, who has managed the Obama camp’s Korean Peninsula policy, was a Biden aide. Biden has visited South Korea many times, and has supported negotiations with the North Koreans, such as the Sunshine Policy. Therefore, upon Obama’s inauguration, Biden will likely take on an important advisory role on matters relating to the Korean Peninsula such as the North Korea nuclear issue and the South Korea-U.S. alliance.

Likely Transformation in North Korea Policy

Early in his campaign, President-elect Obama publicly announced that he would meet with DPRK National Defense Committee Chairman Kim Jong Il within one year of taking office. Therefore, some project that a situation similar to what happened at the end of the Clinton administration, marked by Secretary of State Madeleine Albright’s visit to North Korea and a serious consideration of a North Korea-U.S. summit meeting, will occur. In short, the Obama camp’s discernible North Korea policy to date will be a parallel pursuit of six-party talks and some direct bilateral talks seem to be in the works. While maintaining the multilateral framework of the six-party talks, Obama is likely to expand the level and scope of North Korea-U.S. talks which had hitherto been limited to the issues on the present agenda. Along with forecasts of a high-level envoy to North Korea, some bring up the name of Senator Hilary Clinton, who contended with Obama in the primaries. The negotiations will not only touch on the nuclear issue, missiles and human rights, but also include the improvement in North Korea-U.S. relations and economic aid; depending on circumstances, even a “big deal” that resolves all the issues in one stroke may be discussed.

Nevertheless, the dominant projection is that the start of the Obama administration will not automatically lead to a rapid improvement in relations. For the Democratic Party, while more flexible in methods, is as strict as or even stricter than the Republican Party in terms of non-proliferation or human rights. That also applies to the immediate agenda item of the six-party talks, the verification of North Korea’s nuclear facilities. President-elect Obama’s emphasis later on in the campaign that “conditions must be met” before meeting Kim Jong Il seems to underscore an emphasis on North Korean denuclearization.

The problem is North Korea. If North Korea tries to maintain nuclear weapons while just taking in carrots such as normalization of relations, an embarrassed Obama administration is likely to turn towards a hard-line stance. If the conclusion is reached that denuclearization is impossible through negotiations, then a hard-line policy such as a precision strike on North Korean nuclear facilities, which was seriously considered in the Clinton administration, may be reconsidered.

U.S. Likely to Demand Burden-Sharing from Alliance Partner

No major changes seem in place to the foundation of the South Korea-U.S. alliance. President-elect Obama has even promised in the past to empower South Korea’s voice, saying that the Bush administration has cut down South Korea’s room to maneuver.

Change is possible, however, in South Korea’s share of the burden. President-elect Obama has said that the South Korea-U.S. alliance, which has relied on its military aspect in the past, must be built on the foundation of shared values and mutual benefits, implying that he may demand greater contributions from the Korean side. Immediately, the U.S. might demand a greater role in Afghanistan. Regarding issues such as the return of war-time operational command, the dissolution of the joint command, relocation of American bases, restructuring of the command of the American forces in South Korea, which were agreed during the Bush administration, the dominant forecast is that there will be no big changes in principle.

Looking from the larger perspective of Northeast Asian order, a slight change seems in store for South Korea’s position. While the Republican Party has a strong tendency to emphasize the alliance with South Korea and Japan and to check China, the Democratic Party has a strong tendency to view China as a collaborating partner even while competing with it. In this case, the South Korea-U.S. relationship may be influenced as the fulcrum in U.S.-China relations and U.S.-Japan relations shifts.