Hillary’s Smart Power: A Tough and Soft Approach Toward China?

Published in Zaobao
(Singapore) on 21 February 2009
by Qiu Zhen Hai (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Edward Seah. Edited by Katy Burtner.
U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton arrived in Beijing from South Korea yesterday to begin a three day meeting with China. Not only is this Hillary Clinton’s first visit to China as secretary of state, it also marks the beginning of the Obama administration's skillful running-in with China. This will be of utmost importance to Sino-U.S. ties a few years down the road, and is therefore worthy of close attention.

We can begin to examine the interaction between the U.S. and China during the period of Hillary’s visit from the philosophy and technicality of the U.S.’s policy towards China. Firstly, the philosophy of its policy involves the general setting of the changes in Sino-U.S. ties in recent years. Careful observers may have already noticed that with the development of Sino-U.S. bilateral ties and the easing of the situation of the Taiwan Strait, the Taiwan problem is no longer part of the main issues between the two countries. On the contrary, economic problems represented by economic and trade friction as well as the renminbi exchange rate will gradually become the main point of conflict between the U.S. and China.

Such a change in Sino-U.S. ties is linked to a change in the fundamental state of the ties between the two countries. As everyone knows, as China rose and as it continues to grow, it has constantly deepening impact and influence on the U.S., be it in the area of challenges or cooperation. As such, China has already become a shadow that cannot be driven away in the political, economic and social life of the U.S. The dual situation of cooperation and competition between the two countries has also become increasingly apparent.

American Think Tank Hopes to Influence Hillary

As such, from now and for a long time to come, the Sino-U.S. economic and trade issues as well as their running-in will become the main points of conflict in the ties between the two countries. At the same time, if the two sides continue to work toward easing the tension between them, the effects of American factors in their ties will also continue to decline. Certainly, just as Commander of the U.S. Pacific Command Timothy Keating had expressed earlier of his willingness to bridge the gap between the armed forces of the two countries, whether the U.S. would be able to play certain more proactive roles in future exchanges between the U.S. and China is something for scholars from both sides to think about.

We noticed from such a setting that there had been some changes in the U.S.’s strategic thinking regarding China, be they philosophical or technical. Firstly, following the proposition of Smart Power, U.S. diplomacy will be used to adopt a more proactive attitude in seeking cooperation with international communities in the days to come. Their attitude with regards to their policy toward China will naturally follow suit.

In a recent report released by the Heritage Foundation, it was pointed out that the Obama administration needs to study and learn from the methods of the Reagan administration in the 80’s when it engages China in the days to come. The report states that the Reagan administration’s attitude toward China at that time was one of respect for the Chinese government, people and tradition. On the other hand, the administration was completely firm on its stand. The achievement of balance between the two attitudes enabled the Reagan administration to execute its policy toward China with skill and ease.

The report suggests that the Obama administration has to first evaluate the difference between China’s pledge of cooperation and its actual result. This is because China's actions on a series of issues (such as policies involving North Korea, Myanmar, Iran, and Sudan) where China could have made a positive difference have not been handled satisfactorily, according to the U.S.

The Co-Existence of Toughness and Respect?

At the same time, the report also suggests that the Obama administration should link economic freedom to political freedom, and let the people and government of China understand that economic freedom is a goal that China is striving for with every effort. If, however, China does not open up its politics, it has no ground for discussing economic freedom. The report goes on to suggest that the U.S. should also show respect for the Taiwanese democracy in their engagements with the Chinese. The Obama administration should consider having more interactions between the U.S. and Taiwan, as well as reducing the amount of restrictions placed on Taiwanese officials visiting the U.S., and so on.

Finally, the report says that the U.S. should demonstrate a manner that is powerful yet emphasizing practical results; the U.S. and China will no doubt be strengthening cooperation in many areas in the 21st century, but improvements in their mutual cooperation should not cover China’s weaknesses in other areas. The policy towards China in the Reagan era is one of the most effective of such policies because it respects the people of China and the responsibilities of its government on the one hand, but on the other hand is not afraid to speak out on areas that needed changes. The report also says that the reason why the U.S.’ display of power is effective is because the Chinese leaders know that they can benefit from such cooperation and at the same time fear the consequences that could arise from conflicts and differences in opinions.

The Heritage Foundation is a think tank in the U.S. that is inclined towards the Republicans. The magnitude of its influence on the Obama think tank has yet to be observed, but its influence on the American elites and the public on U.S. diplomatic issues are not to be overlooked. How both tough and soft measures in their policy towards China under the framework of “Smart Power” would unfold, and how this new see-sawing between China and the U.S. would play out as a result of Hillary’s visit to China remains to be seen.


希拉莉“巧实力”:对华软硬兼施?

美国国务卿希拉莉昨天从韩国抵达北京,展开对中国为期三天的访问。这不但是希拉莉作为国务卿的首次访华,也是奥巴马政府与中国展开巧妙磨合的开始,对未来几年的中美关系至关重要,因此值得密切关注。

  观察希拉莉访华期间中美两国的互动,可以从美国对华政策的哲学和技术两个层面展开。首先,对华政策的哲学方面涉及到中美关系近年演变的大背景。细心的人一定已经发现,随着中美双边关系的发展和台海局势的缓和,台湾问题已经不再是中美关系中的主要问题;相反,以经贸摩擦和人民币汇率为代表的经济问题,则逐渐上升为中美之间的主要矛盾。

  中美关系发生这一变化,与两国关系的基本态势发生变化有关。众所周知,由于中国崛起势头的不断发展,中国对美国无论是挑战还是合作层面的冲击和影响都不断深入,因此在美国的政治、经济和社会生活中,中国已经成为一个挥之不去的影子,两国既合作又竞争的态势也日益明显。

美智库希望影响希拉莉

  因此,从现在开始到未来相当长的一段时间内,中美经贸问题及其磨合将成为两国关系中的主要矛盾;与此同时,只要两岸关系继续向着相对缓和的方向演进,美国因素在两岸关系中的作用也就将持续下降。当然,一如美国太平洋舰队司令基廷日前表示愿意为两岸军方牵线搭桥,美国在未来两岸接触中是否可以扮演某些积极的角色,也是两岸有识之士可以思考的问题。

  从这一背景出发人们可以发现,美国最近对中国的战略思维无论在哲学还是在技术层面都发生了一些变化。首先,在政策哲学层面,随着“巧实力”(Smart Power)概念的提出,美国未来在世界外交中势必更多寻求与国际社会合作的态度,对最大的合作对象和潜在的竞争对手中国的政策,自然也是如此。

  美国传统基金会最近发表一份内部报告指出,奥巴马政府未来面对中国时,有必要研究和学习上世纪80年代里根政府的做法。报告认为,当时里根政府对中国的态度,一是尊重中国政府、人民及其传统,另一方面也十分坚持自己的立场,两者之间的平衡使里根政府在对华政策上呈现游刃有余的态势。

  报告建议,奥巴马政府首先要评估中国合作的承诺与实际效果之间的差距,因为过去的经验证明,中国在一系列可以发挥作用的问题上(比如朝鲜、缅甸、伊朗和苏丹),并没有使美国满意。

强硬与尊重并存?

  报告同时建议,奥巴马政府应该将经济自由和政治自由挂钩,使中国人民和政府明白,经济自由是中国全力追求的目标,但没有政治开放,经济自由也无从谈起。报告同时建议美国在对华交往中应显示出对台湾民主的尊重;奥巴马政府应考虑美台之间进行更多的接触,减少对台湾官员访美的限制等。

  报告最后认为,美国在对华政策的技术层面,应显示出既强势又注重实效的风格;中美两国毫无疑问将在21世纪在众多领域里加强合作,双方合作的进步不应掩盖中国在其他领域的缺点;里根时代的对华政策是最为有效的对华策略之一,因为一方面尊重中国人民及其政府的责任,另一方面却又对需要做出改变的领域直言不讳。报告还认为,美国的强势风格之所以有效,是因为中国领导人知道他们可以从合作中获益,同时害怕由于意见不同和冲突而导致的结果。

  传统基金会是美国国内倾向于共和党的智库,对奥巴马智库的影响力有多大尚有待观察,但该智库在美国外交问题上对美国精英和公众阶层的影响力则不容忽视。希拉莉访华,在“巧实力”框架之下对华软硬兼施的策略到底如何展现,中美这场新的太极拳如何展开,人们将拭目以待。
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