44 Democrats Drop Obama

If the bill passed this week by the House of Representatives is adopted by the Senate, between now and 2020 the United States would reduce its CO2 emissions to 17 percent below 2005 levels. This is less ambitious than many wanted, especially in Europe. But for Barack Obama, it would be a start.

Actually this vote, which was extracted only at the cost of strong involvement by the president, bodes ill for the rest of the legislative fight. 219 representatives voted for the bill, while 212 declared themselves against it. Thus, 44 Democrats refused to follow their president, who had called them personally to convince them otherwise.

In the Senate, where the Democratic majority is narrower, and where the members are more independent, the bill promises to be even less ambitious.

The fact that President Obama wasn’t able to secure a more comfortable margin is bad news for those who dreamed of seeing the United States play a leading role in the global process of reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

Even more worrying: the less-than-ambitious bill, which provides aid to big CO2 emitters like coal-fired power generators, only passed thanks to the late-night incorporation of a protectionist amendment. It gives the president the right to impose customs duties on products from countries that don’t do enough to reduce their emissions. Barack Obama has since rejected that amendment, recognizing himself that it’s probably against the rules of the WTO.

This case illustrates an important fact that still escapes many Europeans: Barack Obama is a president like any other. His real popularity gives him a good chance to deliver on his promises, but it doesn’t give him the ability to get everything he wants from even a Democratic Congress.

We’re going to see the same phenomenon with his plan for financial regulation. It’s relatively unambitious; it’s even less than what George W. Bush would have wanted to do. And yet many Democrats are against certain aspects of the reform. In particular, those which give the Fed additional powers to monitor systemic risks to banking.