Tumbling Into the Quagmire in Afghanistan

The central network of the Taiwanese China Daily newspaper reported on September 9, that, according to CNN’s latest opinion poll, opposition to the war in Afghanistan has risen to 11 percent since April, a new high since the war began in October, 2001. In addition, Obama’s approval ratings have fallen to a new low of 53 percent. The drop in Obama’s prestige is related to his health care reform policies, but the war in Afghanistan could become Obama’s Waterloo.

Apparently, one should not conflate opposition to the war in Afghanistan or Obama’s approval ratings. The drop in Obama’s prestige is related to his policies on health care reform. However, the war in Afghanistan could become his Waterloo. Bush recklessly entered the Iraq War quagmire and struggled to extricate himself. If Obama gets entangled in the war in Afghanistan, he’ll be the one to blame for stirring up trouble.

It’s just as the New York Times claimed: As casualties and suspicions about the conduct of the war mount, cries of dissent get louder. Given this fact, is it right to build up troops? It is wrong?

Perhaps Obama’s reinforcement of troops is meant to bring law and order to ensure successful elections in Afghanistan. As soon as Kabul is secure, Obama can say that he has completed Bush’s work in Afghanistan and his own cumulative effectiveness will exceed his successor’s.

But the reality is far from this ideal. Because politics and the military are so closely linked in Afghanistan, if Afghanistan’s internal factions cannot unite, not only will a popularly elected government have difficulty operating effectively, but anti-government attacks from the Taliban will also become more forceful.

Obama vigorously supports the presidential elections in Afghanistan to the point where, as the Afghan people claim, the American military must escort the ballots. But if the American-backed Karzai is granted another term, it will spur upheaval among those who assert that the election is unfair and thus invalid. Kabul’s opposition factions claim that the elections are unfair. The longer the results of the election take to be made public, the stronger the opposition will grow. If Karzai is elected once again, political divisions will take shape, creating more difficulties for the government.

The Iraq government became stable because the Baghdad administration can still operate effectively. However, the comparison with Afghanistan is far-fetched. This is not a problem that building up troops can solve. Even France and Germany are becoming suspicious of the American strategy in Afghanistan, and a chasm is forming.