America has come back with a bang. After its longest recession since the 1930s, the activity of the world’s top economic power has picked up again, three times stronger than in France or Germany. Growth has reached 0.9 percent in the third quarter (or 3.5 percent in an average annual rhythm, as Americans say), while it has only reached 0.3 percent here, where the recession ended three months earlier. President Obama hasn’t been able to keep himself from saying that “this recession is abating and the steps we’ve taken have made a difference,” like a vulgar European government.
However, Christina Romer, who leads her committee of economic advisers, has been more metered. While greeting the encouraging signs, she has emphasized that the economy is far from creating new jobs in a country with 15 million people unemployed for the first time in its history. She has some excellent reasons to be prudent. Average growth comes from the premiums at the scene of the crime – the damage that left the scene at the end of August. The second cause for dynamism is real estate, which is boosted by low interest rates and tax credits attached to those who bought a house for the first time. In other words, the rebound does come from some government measures, but its effect will be ephemeral. In piecing together their stocks, corporations have also supported activity. This technical rebound is going to continue, but not for long.
If the recession is over, the crisis will continue. On one hand, Americans want to pull themselves out of debt. And in order to do that, there is only one solution: Save more and spend less. In one year, some have already contributed to reducing private debt by $150 billion, but the mountain of debt still exceeds $2.5 billion more than five years ago.
International trade is also incapable of taking over domestic trade to spur production. During the summer, imports rose and exceeded exports. The end of the recession is thus going to paradoxically revive the debate on the next stimulus plan in the United States, in spite of an already approved $800 billion plan and a public deficit that will explode to $1.4 trillion this year. It is a debate that might be more lively during the 2010 elections, but excuses for the public debt will not save America from a catastrophe engendered by excuses for private debt.
Any “good news” data that comes from a government that habitually lied about “weapons of mass distractions, Ali Qeuda” and pretty much everything else under the Sun should be viewed with the most suspicion. Said in the most blunt manner, i think they are laying through their teeth about their alleged economic growth.