Message to Pyongyang

About 8,000 American and South Korean soldiers, aboard 20 warships, 200 fighter jets and the U.S.S. George Washington aircraft carrier — one of the most modern of the American fleet — are participating in major military exercises in the Yellow Sea, between Japan and the Korean Peninsula. The original idea was to perform the exercises in the part that separates China, but the peninsula was abandoned after strong protests by the Beijing government.

The operation, called ”Invincible Spirit,” intends to convey to North Korea the message that the U.S. is determined to staunchly support their Southern ally now that the tensions in the region are again getting worse. The new crisis was triggered by the torpedoing of the South Korean Cheonan corvette in March 26, resulting in the death of 46 sailors. An international commission of inquiry constituted by Seoul blamed the North for the unmotivated attack.

Pyongyang denied the accusation and responded with a series of threats. The rejoinder took the form of a ”choreographed spectacle of pressures,” in the words of one observer, against the feudal-nuclear regime of Kim Jong-il, whose health is precarious. The hardening of North Korea, as a matter of fact, is attributed to the competition among the hierarchs of the dictatorship for the throne that might become vacant soon.

The demonstration was preceded by the U.S.’ decision to impose new unilateral economic sanctions against North Korea. They were announced by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton on her second visit to East Asia in two months. In May, characteristically accompanied by the commander of the U.S. Pacific Fleet, Adm. Robert F. Willard, Clinton went to Beijing to urge President Hu Jintao on the need for the U.N. Security Council to punish the aggression against Cheonan with sanctions. It was useless. China, which maintains the most closed tyranny of the globe, has succeeded in getting the Security Council to condemn the torpedoing without mentioning North Korea.

Now, on Wednesday — this time in the company of the Secretary of Defense Robert Gates — Clinton chose Panmunjom in the so-called demilitarized zone between the Koreas, where officers from the countries face each other from a short distance and peer with binoculars at the enemy facilities, to give a reminder of the 60 years since the beginning of the Korean War (1950-1953). The conflict, in which American and Chinese troops came face to face, left the peninsula divided into two countries that remain only in truce.

The symbolism could not be more obvious: the U.S. declared that its solidarity to Seoul remained the same as the one of half a century ago. ”Our military alliance [with South Korea] has never been stronger and should deter any potential aggressor,” Gates warned. Less clear was the content of the additional American sanctions. Clinton stated that the U.S. will not go easy on North Korea about the weapon trade, as well as the money supply and luxury products (falsely) produced in the North and (authentically) imported by Pyongyang for its nomenclature.

The targets are ”[the North Korean leadership and] their assets,” the secretary said. ”[The sanctions] are directed at the destabilizing, illicit, and provocative policies pursued by that government.” The question that the analysts ask themselves is what effects these punishments will have on a regime that is already the most isolated in the world. For having done nuclear tests and launching an alleged long-range missile, North Korea suffered sanctions from the Security Council in 2006 and 2009. The latest ones [as of June 2009] allow the inspection of cargos on the way to North Korea or coming from the country to see if they are carrying materials for weapons of mass destruction.

The basic problem, in any case, is not so much the effect of the new measures in Pyongyang, but in Beijing. It’s obvious that the important economic and financial relations between the U.S. and China limit the mutual exasperation with each other’s policies towards North Korea. The Chinese attitude, since the episode of Cheonan, has been one of asking for restraint to the parties involved. The question is whether China will contain the temptation of the ally to retaliate against Seoul for the joint naval maneuvers with Washington.