U.S. Elections: America Stands in Its Own Way

The U.S. president is campaigning throughout the country, desperately seeking to limit his expected losses in the upcoming congressional elections.

A reminder of the euphoria felt during his presidential campaign popped up in Wisconsin, where 25,000 students cheered him as the crowds did in 2008. In a seemingly desperate attempt to limit his losses at the polls this November, he spends more time now on the cross-country campaign trail than he does in the White House. His last best hope is to mobilize those groups responsible for his 2008 victory — young voters, African-Americans and Latinos. The majority of white voters, especially older white voters, will desert him at the polls.

From a distance, it seems as if Americans have suffered short-term memory loss. Don’t they see Obama is just reinventing the wheel that got him elected in the first place? Republicans today are enjoying successes with an aggressive campaign that turns everything upside down. According to them, it is not a fact that the disastrous economic meltdown begun under George W. Bush is causing the unemployment statistics that still hover around 10 percent. They call it “the Obama recession.” His health care and financial oversight reforms were popular promises in 2008; today they are redefined as government interference in the private sector.

Half of all citizens consider it a bad idea to end the Bush tax cuts for the richest two percent of Americans who earn more than $250,000 a year. This move would raise their tax rate from 33 percent back to 36 percent, where it was during Bill Clinton’s administration. They believe it would reduce their purchasing power and therefore be fatal to the recovery. On such issues, Americans think very differently than Germans.

However, the polemics concerning Obama’s achievements only partially explain the Democrats’ expected losses. His approval rating has sunk to around 45 percent, but that has been the case with most of his predecessors as well. Surveys asking people which party they think has the better ideas almost universally result in an edge for the Democrats across the board.

Nevertheless, the “enthusiasm gap” plays a more important role here: Obama’s opponents are highly motivated while many of his supporters are disappointed. The difference will help the Republicans along to victory. Their success will not result in bipartisan government; the blockade will only get worse. Moderate centrists already feel Congress has marginalized them. Regardless of how unpopular a President may be, you can bet Congress is even less popular. Obama’s attempts to mobilize his base will not help much. They know he is not running for office this time.

This is not solely a crisis for Obama and the Democrats. Both parties are no longer connecting with the people. It is becoming increasingly difficult to come up with one-size-fits-all policies for such a diverse social makeup. As “normal” voters stop participating, radical minorities like the tea party are able to exert disproportionate influence.

All this is exacerbated by the fact that the party system permits charismatic figures like Obama to succeed in presidential elections. However, in order to govern, his party must have a congressional majority. Over-hyped populism does not attract popular support; it only results in gridlock.