Can Americans Be Trusted to Control Japan?

Published in Takungpao
(Hong Kong) on 30 September 2010
by (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Stacy Wong. Edited by Sam Carter.
It may be considered coincidental that just when the Sino-Japanese boat collision incident on Diaoyu Islands was becoming fiercely debated — almost to the point that both parties were about to thrash things out — American President Barack Obama met Japanese Prime Minister Naoto Kan in New York and turned things around. As a result, the Japanese made the decision to release Chinese Captain Zhan Zixiong. Relating this incident to the series of Sino-American interactions taking place currently, it is easy to see that the Sino-American relationship had hit Japan hard, and Japan was forced into making such a decision. Some optimists even claimed that we should not let Japan damage the Sino-American relationship, hinting that China may be striving to initiate diplomatic relations with the United States by collaborating with them to go against Japan.

Can the idea of collaborating with the United States to go against Japan work? The answer is obvious. It is too immature for the United States to exert pressure on Japan just to protect the interests of China, and it is a greater mistake to think that the United States will collaborate to control Japan.

Indeed, the United States has the capacity to exert pressure on Japan – the key lies in the willingness to do so, how to do so, and for whom. For a long time, Japan has acted like the United States of Asia. To maintain its position in Asia, Japan has been allies with the United States. This is especially so considering Japan’s present political instability (which has seen five phase changes in more than three years); its inability to recover from the economic recession; its great amounts of debt; the appreciation of the yen and the threat that China will take over its position as the world’s second most powerful economy. Hence, Japan would want to employ help from the United States to deal with China. Even if the United States makes a small move, Japan will willingly follow suit.

However, the United States will not help China but will instead be happy to see tension in the Sino-Japanese relationship. As long as Japan feels threatened by China’s presence, it will seek cover from and work with the United States. Then it makes it even more reasonable for the United States to station some of its military troops in Japan.

Looking at the entire Diaoyu Islands incident, we find that the United States is ubiquitous. This year, the United States has used the Tianan ship incident to announce its return to the Asian Pacific region, strengthening its military ties with South Korea and having joint military exercises with them, showing off its military powers in peripheral areas of China. Japan dared to challenge China only because it was encouraged by the United States’ actions. After the boat incident, the United States has not been clear in addressing sovereignty issues of Diaoyu Islands. On the other hand, they have clearly announced that the Diaoyu Islands is a region collaboratively protected by Japan and the United States. Using the Japan and United States Security Act, Hillary Clinton, Robert Gates and other renowned figures have taken turns to declare that the United States supports Japan on political and military terms.

By thinking they had nothing to fear, Japan adopted a tough strategy in handling the Diaoyu Islands incident, misjudging the situation and causing the conflict to escalate. In this incident, the United States played the role of the arsonist, definitely not of the firefighter.

Since China and the United States would benefit if they cooperate and would suffer if they fought, these two superpowers can only cooperate in order for them to be successful. The relationship between the two countries has been affected by the United States’ arms trading with Taiwan, which did not benefit either country and was not as important as solving greater international and regional problems. As a result, both countries resumed relations, not because they wanted to be on par with Japan, but because the relationship China has with Japan and the one it has with the United States concern different levels of significance.

To deal with the conflict between Japan and China, both countries have to work together. It is an undeniable fact that, as neighboring countries, Japan and China have to help each other. It is common knowledge that a conflict between these two countries will only be against the interests of their citizens. Both countries will first have to prevent extreme nationalist ideas from spreading, so as to build a foundation of trust among its people. This is the bigger picture, and it sets both countries in the correct direction.


牵制日本 美国人靠得住吗?

也许是时间上的巧合,正当中日间关于钓鱼岛撞船事件争执白热化,双方濒临摊牌的关头,美国总统奥巴马与日本首相菅直人在纽约会晤,冲突峰迴路转,日本方面旋即作出了释放中方船长詹其雄的决定。联想到联大期间中美双方的一系列互动,很容易让人轻率得出中美关系转圜击中了日本的软肋,日方被迫妥协的结论。一些乐观人士甚至发出唿吁,「别让日本坏了中美关系的大局」,暗寓中方宜「联美抗日」,争取外交主动。

「联美抗日」果真行得通吗?答案不言自明。让美国维护中国的利益,出面向日本施压,未免太幼稚,而与美国联手牵制日本,无疑与虎谋皮,就更大错特错了。

诚然,美国有向日本施加压力的所有手段,关键要看美国愿不愿意用、怎么用及为谁而用。长期以来,日本充当美国在亚洲制衡中国的「马前卒」,将自己捆绑在美国的利益战车之上,保持自己在亚洲的大国地位。特别是在当前国内政局不稳,三年多五次换相,经济復苏乏力,债台高筑,日圆迅速升值,经济总量世界第二的位置也被中国抢走的情况下,日本比以往任何时候更迫切地希望借助美国与中国展开博弈。美国稍有动作,日本就会乖乖就范。

但美国非但不会为中国出牌,反而乐见中日关系紧张。只有日本感觉到所谓「中国威胁」的现实存在,才会更向美国靠拢,才会更听命于「主人」的调遣,美军在日本驻扎才更有其合理性。

纵观钓鱼岛事件发生的前前后后,美国的影子无处不在。今年以来,美国藉口「天安舰」事件,高调宣示重返亚太,强化与韩国的军事同盟关系,并通过联合军事演习,在中国周边炫耀武力。日本也正是受到美国的鼓励,才敢于挑起与中国的争端。而「撞船事件」发生后,美国一方面在钓鱼岛主权问题含煳其词,另一方面明确宣布钓鱼岛属于日美同盟协防区域,适用《日美安保条约》,希拉里、盖茨、马伦等文武大将,轮番上阵,高调宣示在政治、军事上坚定站在盟友日本一边。日本有恃无恐,在钓鱼岛风波中採取强硬政策,误判形势,导致冲突节节升级。美国在此次事件中扮演角色是「纵火者」,而绝不是「消防员」。

中美两国「合则两利,斗则俱伤」,两个世界级大国只有合作,而不是对抗,也才有出路。中美两国因美对台军售而中断联繫,不符合两国的最大利益,也不得于重大国际和地区问题的解决。两国恢復交流,远不是为了「平衡日本」,中美和中日关系不是同一层次的问题。

解决中日间的摩擦和冲突,归根结底还要靠两国共同的努力。中日两国互为邻邦、一衣带水,这是任何时候都无法改变的地缘现实。两国对抗损害的是本国人民的利益,这也是双方的共识。两国当前首先要防止的是极端民族主义的蔓延,维护来之不易的民意信任基础,这是大局,也是正确方向。
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