Ayman al-Zawahiri Is More Dangerous Than Osama bin Laden

Macao Daily News published an editorial on June 21, 2011, saying that on June 16, al-Qaida released a statement saying it has elected its second-in-command, Ayman al-Zawahiri, to become its new leader. Al-Zawahiri is actually more dangerous than bin Laden. Al-Zawahiri is considered to be al-Qaida’s strategist; on many occasions he has planned terrorist acts. On a certain level, he is the leader of the al-Qaida ideology.

The following are article excerpts:

On June 16, al-Qaida released a statement saying it has elected its second-in-command, Ayman al-Zawahiri, to become its new leader. This comes one month after American troops killed bin Laden — bin Laden’s successor has finally surfaced. Al-Qaida says that under al-Zawahiri’s leadership, al-Qaida will continue jihad against the U.S. and Israel. People are paying attention to whether al-Qaida can rise up and become active again under al-Zawahiri’s leadership.

Al-Zawahiri was an important aide to bin Laden; he is considered to be al-Qaida’s strategist. He has on many occasions planned and participated in terrorist acts; he has been to places like Bosnia-Herzegovina and Chechnya. Due to al-Zawahiri’s education and vast experience, within the ranks of al-Qaida he is widely considered an intellectual. Many of al-Qaida’s theoretical writings were written by al-Zawahiri; thus, on a certain level, he is the leader of the al-Qaida ideology. Some Middle Eastern media outlets state that even bin Laden relied on al-Zawahiri in the ideological aspects of planning.

On June 8, al-Zawahiri appeared in public, through part of a video message which aired on a religiously extremist website. In it, he was wearing white clothing, a white turban and had a machine gun slung on his back. “[Bin Laden] spent his entire life devoted to terrifying Americans; even after his death he will still cause America to be afraid.” Al-Zawahiri vowed to make the necessary sacrifice to “seize America’s safety.” In the 30-minute video, al-Zawahiri also stated that he will continue the jihad until the invaders have left.

On May 2, after the U.S. had announced that bin Laden had died, rumors of who would take over bin Laden’s post were rampant. People guessed that a possible successor could be Pakistan’s Ilyas Kashmiri; not only was he an intelligence officer but also a special forces officer. On May 15, Al Jazeera reported that bin Laden’s bodyguard, Egyptian militant Saif Adel, had already been appointed as al-Qaida’s new leader. However, al-Zawahiri had always been considered the most likely successor, but his appointment did not happen until more than six weeks after bin Laden’s death. This perhaps means that there was a significant difference in opinions within al-Qaida.

Counterterrorism experts commonly believe that al-Zawahiri will have difficulties taking bin Laden’s place within al-Qaida because he lacks bin Laden’s influence. A former CIA official believes that the level of respect in al-Qaida for al-Zawahiri has not yet reached the level of bin Laden; it will be difficult for others to work with al-Zawahiri. U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates expressed that al-Zawahiri lacks bin Laden’s charm and ability; however, his appointment reminds people that al-Qaida still exists and still needs to be taken down. The spokesperson for the U.S. State Department dismissed al-Qaida’s election of a new leader by saying, “Frankly, it barely matters who runs al-Qaida.” A senior U.S. official, who wishes to remain nameless, believes that al-Zawahiri has not displayed leadership abilities and organizational skills; it will be difficult for al-Zawahiri to lead al-Qaida.

However, in reality, America’s reward to apprehend al-Zawahiri is $25 million — the same it was for bin Laden. This just goes to show that al-Zawahiri is as important as bin Laden in eyes of the United States. Al-Zawahiri is perhaps even more dangerous than bin Laden. Although al-Zawahiri lacks charisma, one cannot ignore al-Zawahiri’s callous resolution and intelligence. Al-Zawahiri has been al-Qaida’s longtime chief strategist; it is believed that he was the one who planned the 9/11 terrorist attacks on the U.S. and was one of the major actors and planners behind the 1998 bombing of the U.S. Embassy in Tanzania. After he takes power, he will try to use the recent wave of demonstrations that have swept across the Middle East to strengthen al-Qaida’s activities in Yemen and to promote the deterioration of the current situation. Al-Qaida’s purpose is to expand its influence to Muslim groups everywhere. From this point of view, al-Zawahiri’s ability cannot be underestimated, counterterrorist activities against al-Qaida must continue and this resolve cannot slacken just because bin Laden is dead.