Ayman al-Zawahiri Is More Dangerous Than Osama bin Laden

Published in Nanfang Daily
(China) on 22 June 2011
by (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Sharon Chiao. Edited by Hoishan Chan.
Macao Daily News published an editorial on June 21, 2011, saying that on June 16, al-Qaida released a statement saying it has elected its second-in-command, Ayman al-Zawahiri, to become its new leader. Al-Zawahiri is actually more dangerous than bin Laden. Al-Zawahiri is considered to be al-Qaida’s strategist; on many occasions he has planned terrorist acts. On a certain level, he is the leader of the al-Qaida ideology.

The following are article excerpts:

On June 16, al-Qaida released a statement saying it has elected its second-in-command, Ayman al-Zawahiri, to become its new leader. This comes one month after American troops killed bin Laden — bin Laden’s successor has finally surfaced. Al-Qaida says that under al-Zawahiri’s leadership, al-Qaida will continue jihad against the U.S. and Israel. People are paying attention to whether al-Qaida can rise up and become active again under al-Zawahiri’s leadership.

Al-Zawahiri was an important aide to bin Laden; he is considered to be al-Qaida’s strategist. He has on many occasions planned and participated in terrorist acts; he has been to places like Bosnia-Herzegovina and Chechnya. Due to al-Zawahiri’s education and vast experience, within the ranks of al-Qaida he is widely considered an intellectual. Many of al-Qaida’s theoretical writings were written by al-Zawahiri; thus, on a certain level, he is the leader of the al-Qaida ideology. Some Middle Eastern media outlets state that even bin Laden relied on al-Zawahiri in the ideological aspects of planning.

On June 8, al-Zawahiri appeared in public, through part of a video message which aired on a religiously extremist website. In it, he was wearing white clothing, a white turban and had a machine gun slung on his back. “[Bin Laden] spent his entire life devoted to terrifying Americans; even after his death he will still cause America to be afraid.” Al-Zawahiri vowed to make the necessary sacrifice to “seize America’s safety.” In the 30-minute video, al-Zawahiri also stated that he will continue the jihad until the invaders have left.

On May 2, after the U.S. had announced that bin Laden had died, rumors of who would take over bin Laden’s post were rampant. People guessed that a possible successor could be Pakistan’s Ilyas Kashmiri; not only was he an intelligence officer but also a special forces officer. On May 15, Al Jazeera reported that bin Laden’s bodyguard, Egyptian militant Saif Adel, had already been appointed as al-Qaida’s new leader. However, al-Zawahiri had always been considered the most likely successor, but his appointment did not happen until more than six weeks after bin Laden’s death. This perhaps means that there was a significant difference in opinions within al-Qaida.

Counterterrorism experts commonly believe that al-Zawahiri will have difficulties taking bin Laden’s place within al-Qaida because he lacks bin Laden’s influence. A former CIA official believes that the level of respect in al-Qaida for al-Zawahiri has not yet reached the level of bin Laden; it will be difficult for others to work with al-Zawahiri. U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates expressed that al-Zawahiri lacks bin Laden’s charm and ability; however, his appointment reminds people that al-Qaida still exists and still needs to be taken down. The spokesperson for the U.S. State Department dismissed al-Qaida’s election of a new leader by saying, “Frankly, it barely matters who runs al-Qaida.” A senior U.S. official, who wishes to remain nameless, believes that al-Zawahiri has not displayed leadership abilities and organizational skills; it will be difficult for al-Zawahiri to lead al-Qaida.

However, in reality, America’s reward to apprehend al-Zawahiri is $25 million — the same it was for bin Laden. This just goes to show that al-Zawahiri is as important as bin Laden in eyes of the United States. Al-Zawahiri is perhaps even more dangerous than bin Laden. Although al-Zawahiri lacks charisma, one cannot ignore al-Zawahiri’s callous resolution and intelligence. Al-Zawahiri has been al-Qaida’s longtime chief strategist; it is believed that he was the one who planned the 9/11 terrorist attacks on the U.S. and was one of the major actors and planners behind the 1998 bombing of the U.S. Embassy in Tanzania. After he takes power, he will try to use the recent wave of demonstrations that have swept across the Middle East to strengthen al-Qaida’s activities in Yemen and to promote the deterioration of the current situation. Al-Qaida’s purpose is to expand its influence to Muslim groups everywhere. From this point of view, al-Zawahiri’s ability cannot be underestimated, counterterrorist activities against al-Qaida must continue and this resolve cannot slacken just because bin Laden is dead.


中新网6月21日电《澳门日报》21日发表社论说,“基地”组织本月十六日宣布,推举其二号人物扎瓦希里为该组织的新领袖。事实上,扎瓦希里比拉登更危险。他被认为是“基地”组织的战略家,曾多次策划恐怖袭击行动。在一定程度上也是“基地”组织意识形态上的领袖。

  文章摘编如下:

  “基地”组织本月十六日宣布,推举其二号人物扎瓦希里为该组织的新领袖,标志着在美军击毙拉登后的一个多月,拉登的接班人终于浮出水面。“基地”称,在扎瓦希里的领导之下,“基地”将继续对美国和以色列发动圣战。人们关注的是,“基地”这个恐怖组织会否在扎瓦希里的带领下走出困境,重新活跃起来。

  扎瓦希里是拉登的重要助手,也被认为是“基地”组织的战略家。他曾多次策划恐怖袭击行动,并且亲自参加了很多战役,去过波黑、车臣等地。由于扎瓦希里学识和经历都非常丰富,在组织内部广泛为知识分子接受。“基地”内很多有关组织的理论著作都出自扎瓦希里之手,所以他在一定程度上是“基地”组织意识形态上的领袖。有中东媒体称,即使是拉登,在意识形态策划方面上,都要依靠扎瓦希里。

  扎瓦希里最近一次出现在公众面前是在本月八日,一家宗教极端主义网站发布了他的一段视频讲话。画面中,他身穿白衣、头扎白头巾,身后还摆放了一挺机枪。“(拉登)这个用一生时间令美国人感到恐惧的人,死后还会令美国恐惧。”他誓言将采取必要牺牲,“来夺取美国的安全”。在三十分钟的讲话中,扎瓦希里还称,将继续圣战之路,直到将入侵者赶出。

  五月二日美军宣布击毙拉登后,关于谁将接替拉登成为“基地”领导人的传言甚嚣尘上。人们先是猜测继任者可能会是巴基斯坦裔的卡什米里,他既做过情报官,又做过特种部队的军官;五月十五日,阿拉伯半岛电视台又发布消息称,拉登的保镖、埃及激进分子赛义夫·阿德尔已被任命为“基地”组织临时领导人。不过,纵使扎瓦希里一直被认为是最有可能的继任者,但其任命在拉登被杀后超过六个星期才得到落实,可能也意味着“基地”领导层内部出现重大分歧。

  反恐问题专家普遍认为,扎瓦希里在“基地”内外都很难企及拉登原有的地位,缺乏拉登那种影响力。一名前中情局官员也认为,扎瓦希里在组织内部受尊崇的程度远不及拉登,别人对他的印象是难以共事。美国国防部长盖茨则表示,扎瓦希里缺乏拉登的魅力与行事技巧,但其任命正好提醒世人,“基地”组织依然存在,必须打击。美国国务院发言人对“基地”组织选出新领袖的意义不屑一顾,称“无所谓”。不具名的美国高级官员认为,扎瓦希里没有展现出领导力和组织才能,领导“基地”组织会感到困难。

  但事实是,美国悬赏缉拿扎瓦希里的金额是二千五百万美元,与拉登一样身价,这就说明在美国眼中扎瓦希里的重要性并不比拉登低,他甚至比拉登更危险。扎瓦希里虽然欠缺领袖魅力,但不能忽略扎瓦希里个性中冷酷决绝和聪明过人的一面。长期担任“基地”首席战略家的扎瓦希里据信是2001年美国“九·一一”恐怖袭击和1998年美国驻坦桑尼亚大使馆爆炸案的主要运作和策划者。他上任后会设法利用当前横扫中东的示威浪潮,加强在也门的活动,并推动恶化当地局势,从而达到将“基地”影响力向海外穆斯林群体扩展的目的。从这角度看,不能小看扎瓦希里的能力,对“基地”的恐怖活动的防范,不应因拉登的去世而松懈。
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