The Rick Perry Factor

With the premiere of the film “Undefeated,” a documentary about Sarah Palin’s political career, the former governor of Alaska will recover the center of media attention that the Republican presidential candidates have captured for the last few days — especially Michele Bachmann, Palin’s alter ego in the tea party.

For the umpteenth time, political analysts will speculate about what would happen if Palin decided to run, and what it means for the pre-primary in Iowa, a very important state in the primaries. After a few months — or maybe we should say years? — the debate about Palin’s hypothetical aspirations is already tiresome.

Without a doubt, Palin’s entrance into the campaign would revolutionize the Republican primaries. Her coverage would be so ample that the rest of the candidates, except for Mitt Romney, Michele Bachmann and maybe Tim Pawlenty, would practically disappear from the media. However, I’m not sure that would threaten the condition of Romney as favorite. Moreover, it would maybe reinforce Palin’s chance of victory.

Although Palin is considered a kind of heroine for conservative America, many Republicans do not want to even imagine the possibility that she could be Obama’s rival in 2010. She is an extremely polarizing figure, and Americans know that this would mean serving the president his re-election on a platter.

Because of his low electability in the general elections and because it would divide the more conservative evangelical vote, Romney would be the ultimate incumbent on the ticket in opposition to the former governor of Alaska. The greatest risk to their chances of victory goes by the appearance of a candidate that could unite behind himself the furthest right-wingers of the Republican Party.

Instead, the one who could revolutionize the political primaries and not just the media is Rick Perry, the popular governor of Texas, who, like Palin, continues pulling the petals off the daisy regarding a possible candidacy.

In addition to impeccable conservative credentials, Perry has to his credit ample executive experience, an element missing from Palin and Bachmann’s CVs. Indeed, his profile of being a good manager in both the public and private sectors is the main argument against Romney’s campaign.

If the Republican primaries end up becoming a tête-à-tête between Romney and Bachmann and/or Palin at the level of narratives, the contest will be a competition between management capacity against ideological purity. Given the existing stress in the country regarding the economic situation and the fact that many Independents will vote in the Republican primaries in the absence of the Democratic ones, in this case, Romney has everything to gain.

Now, if Perry were to enter the race and if he became the most conservative candidate, it would complicate his chances of victory. Texas is one of the states that has best coped with the recession, leading the job creation statistics, so Perry could compete with Romney in this field and try to dispute his “anti-crisis” candidate status.

In this scenario, Romney would probably argue that he has the best chances (of the primary candidates) of beating Obama in the general elections. And Perry is so far toward the right, in addition to being closely tied to George Bush — he was his lieutenant governor and deputy — he could drive away from the Republican Party the Independents and moderates, which are key sectors in the general elections.