Don’t Let North Korea off the Hook

Published in Nikkei
(Japan) on 27 August 2011
by (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Ryan Whiting. Edited by Nathan Ladd.
Secretary General Kim Jong-Il of North Korea visited Russia for the first time in nine years and there met with President Medvedev. Kim declared that preparations were underway to stop production and testing of missiles and nuclear warheads and that he will return without preconditions to the six-party talks focused on the North Korean nuclear problem.

The six-party talks that began late 2008 have been dormant for almost three years. For a time, North Korea had even gone so far as to withdraw from the talks. However, in recent times that has changed, and now they strongly desire to reopen talks in the near future. According to the international community, North Korea’s economy has suffered due to the sanctions, so North Korea is hoping to receive financial aid.

However, the U.S. Department of State has concluded that North Korea stopping nuclear testing is not enough. This is as expected. Even if North Korea listens to the council for a time, if the talks don’t go as North Korea wants them to, next time they could conceivably rescind their current “stop to testing” with a brilliant flash and ground shaking measures.

The U.S., Japan, and South Korea have created prerequisites to starting up the six-party talks again. They want North Korea to begin taking specific measures toward abandoning its nuclear program, such as stopping uranium enrichment and letting International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors back in. If North Korea really wants to return to the six-party talks, it should show it by its actions.

At the leadership meeting between Russia and North Korea, they agreed to proceed with a natural gas pipeline that will go from Russia through North Korea into South Korea. North Korea will collect an import tax on the passage of gas. As a plan for promoting reform and openness, the plan has value. However, as long as there isn’t progress in resolving the nuclear problem or improving North and South Korea’s relationship, the plan will be hard to implement.

My fear is that Russia will softly compromise for a little increased influence and a little bit better relationship with North Korea. For example, Russia began sending 50,000 tons of food-aid to North Korea preceding Kim’s visit to Russia.

Russia and China are hopeful that six-party talks can soon begin again. On his way home from Russia Kim made a stop in China. There is a possibility that North Korea is trying to divide Russia and China from the U.S., Japan, and South Korea.

Of course it is not bad for participating countries to repeatedly talk to North Korea. What we must not forget though is that the reason for talking is to urge visible action from North Korea in abandoning its nuclear program. I want China, Russia, South Korea, Japan, and the U.S. not to let North Korea off the hook, but together to deal with this menace to Northeast Asia.




北朝鮮への包囲網を崩すな


 北朝鮮の金正日総書記が9年ぶりにロシアを訪問し、メドベージェフ大統領と会談した。ロシア大統領府によれば、金総書記は北朝鮮の核問題をめぐる6カ国協議に前提条件なしで復帰し、その際には核兵器やミサイルの実験・製造を凍結する用意があると表明した。

 6カ国協議は2008年末に開いたのを最後に、3年近くも休眠状態が続いている。北朝鮮は一時、協議からの離脱まで宣言したが、最近は一転して、早期再開に強い意欲を示している。国際社会による制裁で経済が疲弊するなか、経済支援を得たいという思惑があるのだろう。

 しかし、米国務省は核実験などの凍結だけでは「不十分」と断じた。当然である。仮に協議を開いても、北朝鮮は自らの思い通りに話し合いが進まなければ、こんどは「凍結」の解除をちらつかせて揺さぶることは十分に想像がつく。

 日米韓は6カ国協議再開の条件として、ウラン濃縮活動の停止、国際原子力機関(IAEA)の査察団の復帰など、核放棄に向けた具体的な行動を北朝鮮側に求めている。北朝鮮が真に協議復帰を望んでいるのなら、まずは行動で示すべきだ。

 ロ朝首脳会談では、ロシアから北朝鮮経由で韓国に通じる天然ガスパイプラインの建設を進めることで合意した。北朝鮮はガスの通過料などの外貨収入が得られるという。北朝鮮の改革・開放を促す構想として評価はできる。だが、南北関係の改善や核問題の解決に向けた進展がない限り、実現は難しいだろう。

 心配なのは、ロシアが北朝鮮との関係改善や影響力拡大を重んじるあまり、安易な譲歩に走ることだ。ロシアは金総書記の訪ロに先立ち、5万トンの食糧支援を始めている。

 中国とロシアはもともと6カ国協議の早期再開に前向きだ。金総書記はロシアからの帰路、中国に立ち寄った。北朝鮮が中ロと、日米韓の分断を画策している可能性もある。

 関係国が北朝鮮と対話を重ねることはもちろん、悪いことではない。忘れてはならないのは、北朝鮮に対して、核放棄に向けた目に見える行動を促すという原則だ。日米韓も中ロも包囲網を崩さず、結束して北東アジアの脅威に対処していきたい。
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