Obama's Misguided Iran Policy
Published in die Zeit
(Germany) on 18 October 2011
by Christoph Bertram (link to original)
(Germany) on 18 October 2011
by Christoph Bertram (link to original)
Translated from
by Ron Argentati.
Edited by Andrew Schmidt.
The West wants to slow Iran's nuclear program but America's reaction to the alleged Iranian assassination plot renders that goal unlikely. A commentary.
The Obama administration last week added much noise to the long string of tactical blunders by the West regarding Iran. In an attempt to get the Iranian government to keep its nuclear program from straying toward military uses, every diplomatic effort would be necessary according to Mark Fitzpatrick, Director of the Non-Proliferation and Disarmament Program of the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS).
Instead, Washington decided to use an alleged Iranian conspiracy against the Saudi-Arabian ambassador to try to further isolate Iran.
If this remarkable story released by the U.S. Department of Justice last week proves to be true, it shows that, at best, there are forces active in Iran planning attacks against the United States, although of the most simpleminded variety. It's not very likely Iranian leadership was involved in that.
Supposedly, a bumbling Iranian-American went to a drug cartel in Mexico attempting to hire an assassin, but instead wound up negotiating with a Drug Enforcement Agency agent pretending to be an assassin who then promptly contacted the FBI. The agency arrested the Iranian-American after $100,000 had been transferred to a Mexican bank account actually controlled by the FBI. The suspect was described as “cooperative” but was denying all charges against him.
Had there been even partially normal relations between Washington and Tehran, this incident, more confusing than definitive, could have been worked out behind closed doors. The circumstances are certainly unusual enough. But the norm between the U.S. and Iran is only animosity, and diplomatic discourse has long since been forgotten. The Obama administration prefers to publicly blame the Iranian leadership, saying they were behind the conspiracy or, at the very least, should have prevented it.
Obama announces severe sanctions and his Vice President and Secretary of State ask the international community for solidarity in isolating Iran. America's diplomats fan out to bring U.S. allies into line and to perhaps convince others like Russia and China, both opposed to broadening sanctions, to change their minds. Should the accusations against Iran as instigator for the failed plot prove to be full of holes, the entire incident would be exposed as a mere pretext to increase pressure on Iran and to perhaps convince the American people that their president really is a tough guy.
But even if accusations that the Iranian leaders were somehow involved prove true, a further tightening of sanctions would be senseless. Iran is already shackled by sanctions but that hasn't prevented it from pursuing its nuclear program.
That can't be controlled with external pressure. It can only be reined in if the Iranian government agrees to do so. Over the past months, Iran's diplomats have repeatedly signaled Tehran would be open to a diplomatic solution, provided the country's right to pursue uranium enrichment is assured. Russia has suggested that sanctions against Iran be gradually withdrawn contingent upon allowing the Vienna-based International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) more inspection rights.
Such “trial balloons” certainly don't guarantee the success of future negotiations. But whoever considers the Iranian nuclear program a major threat as Obama's government does has no realistic alternative to ensure future negotiations.
At the start of his administration, Obama himself seemed convinced of that. But now the United States is behaving as if it thinks further isolating Iran is the key to solving the nuclear question, and wants to use this alleged conspiracy toward that end. America needs to heed its own wise advice that the first thing to do when one finds oneself in a hole is to stop digging. The West is now even further away from effectively limiting Iran's nuclear aspirations.
The Obama administration last week added much noise to the long string of tactical blunders by the West regarding Iran. In an attempt to get the Iranian government to keep its nuclear program from straying toward military uses, every diplomatic effort would be necessary according to Mark Fitzpatrick, Director of the Non-Proliferation and Disarmament Program of the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS).
Instead, Washington decided to use an alleged Iranian conspiracy against the Saudi-Arabian ambassador to try to further isolate Iran.
If this remarkable story released by the U.S. Department of Justice last week proves to be true, it shows that, at best, there are forces active in Iran planning attacks against the United States, although of the most simpleminded variety. It's not very likely Iranian leadership was involved in that.
Supposedly, a bumbling Iranian-American went to a drug cartel in Mexico attempting to hire an assassin, but instead wound up negotiating with a Drug Enforcement Agency agent pretending to be an assassin who then promptly contacted the FBI. The agency arrested the Iranian-American after $100,000 had been transferred to a Mexican bank account actually controlled by the FBI. The suspect was described as “cooperative” but was denying all charges against him.
Had there been even partially normal relations between Washington and Tehran, this incident, more confusing than definitive, could have been worked out behind closed doors. The circumstances are certainly unusual enough. But the norm between the U.S. and Iran is only animosity, and diplomatic discourse has long since been forgotten. The Obama administration prefers to publicly blame the Iranian leadership, saying they were behind the conspiracy or, at the very least, should have prevented it.
Obama announces severe sanctions and his Vice President and Secretary of State ask the international community for solidarity in isolating Iran. America's diplomats fan out to bring U.S. allies into line and to perhaps convince others like Russia and China, both opposed to broadening sanctions, to change their minds. Should the accusations against Iran as instigator for the failed plot prove to be full of holes, the entire incident would be exposed as a mere pretext to increase pressure on Iran and to perhaps convince the American people that their president really is a tough guy.
But even if accusations that the Iranian leaders were somehow involved prove true, a further tightening of sanctions would be senseless. Iran is already shackled by sanctions but that hasn't prevented it from pursuing its nuclear program.
That can't be controlled with external pressure. It can only be reined in if the Iranian government agrees to do so. Over the past months, Iran's diplomats have repeatedly signaled Tehran would be open to a diplomatic solution, provided the country's right to pursue uranium enrichment is assured. Russia has suggested that sanctions against Iran be gradually withdrawn contingent upon allowing the Vienna-based International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) more inspection rights.
Such “trial balloons” certainly don't guarantee the success of future negotiations. But whoever considers the Iranian nuclear program a major threat as Obama's government does has no realistic alternative to ensure future negotiations.
At the start of his administration, Obama himself seemed convinced of that. But now the United States is behaving as if it thinks further isolating Iran is the key to solving the nuclear question, and wants to use this alleged conspiracy toward that end. America needs to heed its own wise advice that the first thing to do when one finds oneself in a hole is to stop digging. The West is now even further away from effectively limiting Iran's nuclear aspirations.
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