Iran and America Slide Slowly Toward War

Many issues are preoccupying Iranian citizens these days: from the early effects of economic sanctions on their country, such as the currency devaluation crisis, to the possibility of an armed confrontation between Iran and Western nations. All this has made the cold this Iranian winter crueler and fiercer than in other years.

The Islamic Republic of Iran is about to celebrate the 34th anniversary of the revolution. With all of the country’s problems, this anniversary seems different from previous years. The value of the currency dropped sharply in early January after President Barack Obama passed harsher economic sanctions on Iran. These sanctions will make it nearly impossible for companies and countries to pay the price of Iranian oil. The European Union also passed sanctions on importing Iranian oil. The production and sale of Iranian oil amounts to 80 percent of the country’s hard currency income. Europe imports 20 percent of Iran’s oil exports; thus while the European ban alone will have a limited impact on the Iranian economy, sanctions on the Central Bank of Iran will have a wider impact. Tehran can find other customers to buy the oil that Europe refuses to purchase, but the problem will be in the method of payment. American sanctions on the Central Bank of Iran will apply to any foreign company that works with the bank.

Perhaps after some time, many countries will shift to exchanging goods for Iranian oil due to the difficulty of monetary payment. In the end, this issue will paralyze the whole of Iran’s economy. Even the sharp slump in the value of Iran’s currency against the American dollar decreases the Central Bank of Iran’s hard currency reserves. The situation could become worse if South Korea and Japan, the most important buyers of Iranian oil, withdraw their contracts with the Iranian authorities.

But can the ban on oil and the sanctions against the Central Bank of Iran be considered a declaration of war? Iran threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz if the oil ban was actually enforced on the country. But in response, the American government sent a letter to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, warning him that closing the Strait of Hormuz would cross a “red line,” as the Strait is the path for a large portion of the world’s oil supplies. Iran confirmed that it received the American government’s letter. Yahya Rahim Safavi, military advisor to the Supreme Leader, responded by saying that Iran has the longest coastline with the Persian Gulf and will use all means necessary to defend its interests, and that if it is necessary to close the Strait of Hormuz it will do so.

The main goal of Western states in putting this pressure on Iran is to convince the Iranian authorities to cease enriching uranium and accept the United Nations’ decision. As of yet, Iran has not agreed; and after years of talks around Iran’s nuclear program, negotiations between the P5+1 group and Iran haven’t arrived at a solution. Iran’s response to Western pressure could be dangerous, but the United States has shown that it’s serious about preventing Iran from carrying out its threat to close the Strait of Hormuz.

It could be said that relations between the United States and Iran are extremely tense at this stage, as is clear to all observers. Russia’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Sergey Lavrov, said that the goal of Western sanctions on Iranian oil is to suffocate the country’s economy and push the people to revolt against the government. Lavrov went on to say in a recent press conference that military actions against Iran would be catastrophic and that Russia would consider it to be a threat to its national interests.

While the tension between the West and Iran over Iran’s nuclear program intensified, Iranian Minister of Foreign Affairs Ali Akbar Salehi announced that a new round of negotiations between Iran and the P5+1 group would begin soon. Salehi told reporters that Istanbul would host the new negotiations. Turkey previously hosted talks between the two sides last year, without any notable progress made. It was not clear from Minister Salehi’s statement whether the European countries would agree to sit down with the Iranians if Iran does not present a clear plan during the negotiations to cease enriching uranium.

Iran might be willing to enter into new talks with the P5+1 group, as it wants to buy some more time and delay the oil sanctions, which the European Union will begin to enforce at the end of July. At present, companies have about six months to end their oil contracts with Tehran and find other suppliers, such as Saudi Arabia. Iran sent a clear message to the members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, among which Iran is the second-largest supplier of oil, warning them that if they increase oil production to support the ban on Iranian oil, Tehran would consider this an unfriendly act.

Whenever the pressure increases on the Islamic Republic of Iran on the one hand, and the United States and its allies on the other, the situation in Iran becomes more enshrouded in uncertainty. Not a day goes by that you don’t hear people discussing the rising prices of gold and the dollar in the Iranian market. The poor economy, the political frustrations, the undesirable confrontation with the United States that Iran appears to be sliding toward — because of all these issues the Iranian people live in a state of unrest and worry. The winter weather is very cold, and most Iranians are saving the money they have in anticipation of what might happen. The parliamentary elections will take place on March 2, and after that is the Persian new year. Can the country survive this stage of the increasingly difficult political and economic crises?