Obama and Sarkozy: Facing Re-election

Just as clouds are forming around Nicolas Sarkozy, the sky seems to be clearing for U.S. President Barack Obama. Granted, we should always use caution when making these types of declarations: the atmosphere could still change several times before the elections.

In this article, which provides more a snap shot of today’s political climate than a real prediction, three factors must be considered: the state of the economy, the relative rejection of the standing presidential candidates (even if in France, Sarkozy has not officially declared himself), and the behavior of the principal opposition parties on both sides of the Atlantic.

The United States is experiencing a kind of timid revival, though it is still impossible to predict the results in nine months. In France, however, we are less than 90 days from the election and there is still no sign of a solution.

In the United States, Obama has largely lost the support of the independent voters who were so important for his victory in 2008. He has also disappointed an important part of his own Democratic Party, who have found him too lukewarm on the subject of reforms and who criticize him for not having distanced himself enough from Wall Street. His exceptional talent as an orator has almost put him at a disadvantage. At this time of economic crisis, the United States doesn’t want so much a Demosthenes as a Roosevelt. But, excepting a group of ultra-conservative and racist voters, no one is rejecting Obama as a person, but rather, voters oppose some of his political decisions or feel deceived by some of his actions. The French rejection of President Sarkozy is a whole different animal. It seems more connected to the essence of his person rather than his political performance, even if certain dimensions of his security plan do not please the humanist voters who had rallied around him, for lack of a better option, at the second turn of the 2007 presidential elections. The emotional, subjective nature of this rejection places him in a more difficult situation than that of Obama.

Let’s look at the behavior and choices of those who oppose the two candidates. A little more than 10 days ago, the Republican nomination seemed decided before the voting had even begun. The most sensible candidate had been identified. They didn’t particularly like Mitt Romney — not conservative enough in their eyes — but he seemed to be the most eligible of the Republican candidates. The desire to win the election took precedence over dominant Republican ideologies. But suddenly, this neat balance was upset. The Republicans, having found no reason to embrace Romney, instead found reasons to reject him. He is arrogant about his fortune and his low tax rate, though perfectly legal, is indecent. Not to worry that his rival Newt Gingrich is equally as rich, because he is a “real conservative.” In the current economic climate, a certain section of the Republican Party seems more obsessed with money than with sex scandals, ignoring Gingrich’s sexual escapades in favor of Romney’s tax documents. Of course, nothing is settled and the campaign will probably be a long struggle. But today, the electoral dynamic seems to be reversed in favor of Gingrich, whose unpredictability and excessive conservatism make him a less formidable opponent for Obama.

On the flip side, in France, the Socialist Party’s desire to win the election seems to have outweighed all ideological consideration. President Sarkozy’s task — facing the Socialist party candidate — seems more difficult than President Obama’s if he finds himself facing a candidate (like Gingrich) from the “heart” of the Republican Party. Because of the depth of the recession, there is one theme that unifies both sides of the Atlantic: social justice. People are ready to work for little pay so that resources can be shared among all sections of society. Increasing taxes for the richest Americans isn’t just one of the Obama campaign’s strong points against Romney. It’s a global theme that plays objectively in favor of the current president of the United States and in favor of [Socialist frontrunner Francois] Hollande in France.