Is Obama Winning the Republican Primary?

It looks like the Republican party is the big loser of its own primaries! The day after Mitt Romney’s victory in Illinois and the media’s perception of favorable momentum behind his nomination, the GOP is confronted with the reality that it cannot dodge: a weakened image of the party, the Americans’ weariness facing the mediocrity of its candidates and a published survey of the swing states that “make” the election. Published in the Los Angeles Times, the purple poll is in favor of Obama and does not do the Republicans any favors. These are good reasons for Jeb Bush – the party’s son, brother and head of the show – to decide to blow the whistle to end the recess and finally “concede” his support for Mitt Romney. But is it too late?

The survey published by the Los Angeles Times must have seemed like a cold shower for the Republicans. The purple poll is the survey carried out in the 12 states that “make” the election, also known as the swing states or purple states. Since the month of November, the last edition of the survey, things have progressed. But it’s good news for Obama:

– Trend reversal. In November, more than two-thirds of the people surveyed said the country was going in the wrong direction. In March this figure dropped to 57 percent. Thirty-six percent declared that it was going in the right direction, an increase of 16 points since November. This is a significant trend reversal.

– The president is gaining ground. Obama’s approval rating has increased by 5 points since September. He went from 41 percent approval to 46 percent.

– The Democrats are perceived by 51 percent of independent voters as the party that is most interested in the important subjects for women, whereas only 24 percent of those asked believe this of the Republicans. And we all know the importance of the female vote.

– The price of fuel. Half of the people surveyed would not criticize Obama if prices continued to rise. But the other half is very hostile about this issue.

– Obama is ahead of Romney. In November, the two candidates were on a level playing field. Today, Obama would win, with 48 percent to Romney’s 44 percent.

So there’s nothing to celebrate in the Republican camp. Sixty percent of purple poll voters think that the chicanery of the Republican primary has already weakened the future GOP presidential candidate. Even if Romney has strong support from 61 percent of Republicans, it cannot be said that the survey sample saw him in a good light: 56 percent have an unfavorable image of him — an increase of 17 percent since September. This would make him lose against Obama.