As US Presidential Election Enters into Its Final Stage, What Are the Odds for Romney?

Romney is a very strong candidate whose views on foreign and economic policies are both moderate and intelligent; however, Romney’s pragmatism does have a negative effect, for no one can determine his true position.

The six-month-long U.S. presidential primaries drew to a close on the evening of June 26. The end of the primaries signals that the real contest and clash between U.S. president Barack Obama and Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney is now in full swing.

The Associated Press recently released a poll that indicated that support for Obama and Romney was at 47 percent and 44 percent, respectively. With the election less than five months away, Obama and Romney are going all out in election rallies, mauling and bickering at each other in their speeches. What advantages and challenges does Romney have when it comes to economic and social issues? As a representative for the wealthy, how will Romney win the support of rural and blue-collar white Americans?

1. The Economy: “One Cannot Only Attack Without Countermeasures”

Having experienced the most serious economic crisis since the Great Depression of the 1930s, the American public is now extremely concerned with economic issues. Seizing the voters’ dissatisfaction with reality and their anxiety over the economic outlook, Romney has decided to play the economy card as the main focus of in his campaign. “The more the economy declines, the more favorable it will be for Romney,”* said Georgetown University sociology professor Michael Dyson when interviewed by a Southern Metropolis reporter.

A recent poll jointly produced by the Associated Press and the GfK market research group showed that the gap between Obama and Romney is shrinking due to the sluggish economy and other factors. With the election less than five months away, the percentage of voters who have expressed that they will vote for Obama or Romney were 47 percent and 44 percent, respectively, with Obama leading with only three percentage points.

The survey found that the economic downturn and persistent high unemployment rate are the major barriers to Obama’s re-election, with 55 percent of the public in disfavor of Obama’s approach to the nation’s economic issues. About 40 percent of people believe that their standard of living is worse when compared to four years ago, while only 30 percent of people believe they are better off than four years ago.

Some Americans have mocked the Republican camp for reducing the economic problem to “Obama’s fault.” “Yes, we are indeed dissatisfied with Obama’s economic policies, but that rich Republican guy doesn’t necessarily have any better ideas. Therefore, we might as well vote for the current president,”* said Dyson.

The New York Times' analysis refers to Romney as a very strong candidate whose views on foreign and economic policies are both moderate and intelligent; however, Romney’s pragmatism does have a negative effect, for no one can determine his true position. Independent voters can accept that the Republican candidates have used radical speech in the past to win votes, but they need to be able to trust the future president on important issues. Romney has released long-winded statements on economic policies, but the details of their implementation have remained elusive. No one knows exactly how he plans to reform the costly U.S. health care and pension system, and his view on solving the problem of the U.S.’s 12 million illegal immigrants is equally obscure.

Therefore, a chorus of dissatisfaction with Romney has began to surface within the Republican Party. Some Republicans have complained that Romney needs to establish his own unique and detailed points in the campaign rather than “burying” himself in wait for news of bad economic downturns to surface and relying on external groups and super political action committees to fight the battle for him. (The so-called super political action committees are private political organizations that support the presidential candidate; their main task is to donate money to businesses, interest groups or individuals via TV advertisements and other forms of political elections and legislative processes.)

2. Immigration: “Policies Regarding Ethnic Minorities Warrant Adjustment”

While the economy is the commanding issue in this election, the debt crisis in Europe has rendered the U.S.’s economic recovery extremely weak. The Associated Press polls show that many people think that neither Obama’s re-election nor Romney’s White House aspirations will improve the American economy. Thus at this stage, no matter how valiantly the two candidates are promoting their policies, the voters are growing tired and perhaps even increasingly pessimistic. Under such circumstances, social issues have become the new battleground for both sides to wrestle with, among which illegal immigration is a problem that carries major influence.

On June 15, Obama issued an executive order to stop the repatriation of law-abiding young illegal immigrants who entered the U.S. as children and to issue them work permits. This policy, nearly the equivalent of amnesty, is going to benefit nearly 800,000 people, a majority of whom are of Hispanic decent.

Following this, Bloomberg released a poll showing that the policy has gained 60 percent support, while Obama’s support rate rose to 53 percent, marking a significant lead over Romney’s 40 percent support.

Dyson expressed that the competition for Hispanic support is a big challenge for Romney. USA Today recently analyzed that the sharp decline in Hispanics’ support for Romney is not only due to Obama’s “move,” but also stems from Romney himself. In October of last year, Romney vehemently attacked the DREAM Act, which was signed by Rick Perry back in 2001, saying that “Perry’s signage of the bill is simply an act providing bait for illegal immigrants.”* The bill would allow illegal immigrant students to attend public universities at Texas residents’ tuition rates. Romney also said that if he is to become president, he would not have allowed the passing of the bill. These created the conditions for Obama’s “amnesty” gesture.

Facing Obama’s “move”, Romney has not been able to furnish specific reform policies and has even refused to comment on whether or not he will overthrow Obama’s “New Deal” that has suspended the deportation of these illegal immigrants.

Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush and other Republican heavyweights have repeatedly warned that Romney needs to adjust his immigration policies and proposals. They are worried that losing the votes of ethnic minorities would mean that the Republican party will not only lose this election, but also lose the “future”, and Romney cannot afford the consequences of alienating Hispanic groups.

This uneasiness is not unreasonable, since America is a nation of immigrants. In the existing U.S. population, whites account for about 64 percent, Hispanics 16.3 percent, African Americans 12.6 percent, and Asian Americans 4.6 percent. Hispanics are the largest ethnic minority in the U.S., accounting for approximately a sixth of the total population. In the past four decades, immigration, especially illegal immigration, has become a tough problem. It has become the biggest issue plaguing the government and the main topic of debate between liberals and conservatives. USA Today analyzes that in the early November presidential elections, minority votes will have a decisive effect.

This is the main reason behind Romney and Obama’s trip to Florida to attend the the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials conference. On June 22, Obama delivered a speech at the event--Romney had delivered a speech at the same occasion just a day prior. More than ever before, ethnic minorities have become the object of competition between the two presidential candidates.

3. Rural Voters: “The Electoral College Game Changer”

In addition to the immigration issue, winning the votes of rural and blue-collar Americans presents both a challenge and an opportunity for the rich’s representative, Romney.

As we all know, should Romney be elected, he will become the richest president in American history. According to Forbes magazine, Romney’s assets are estimated to be as high as $250 million, with an annual investment income of $21 million currently.

Romney’s father was the president of the American Motors Corporation, the 43rd governor of Michigan, a candidate for the Republican nomination for president, the Secretary of Housing and Development during the Nixon administration and a renowned politician. Romney himself was a honors student at Harvard who was been thoroughly engaged with the financial sector after graduating. He is known for turning losses into profits and displaying no hesitation during streamlined layoffs, to the point that his political opponents claim that his success is built on the basis of masses of unemployed workers. The Obama campaign has therefore been bashing Romney as a ruthless capitalist.

“As a millionaire, Romney has spent most of his time in big cities. If he wants to win the presidential election in November, he might need to 'head into the countryside' and make contact with working-class voters, for face-to-face communication will enhance the voters’ understanding,” said Senior Political Analyst for The Washington Examiner Michael Barone to reporters at Southern Metropolis. “Votes from rural voters might be the tipping point between success and failure.”*

Obama achieved great success canvassing in rural areas back in 2008. His rallies in the Iowa, Colorado and North Carolina regions laid the foundations for his victory later on. Romney’s campaign team is also aware of this. Romney recently visited small towns in six Midwest states to amass support for the general election.

Barone analyzed that in order to get the support of rural voters, Romney needs to set forth an easily comprehensible and convincing economic plan in which individual initiatives and the limiting of governmental regulations are encouraged. He needs to commit to the implementation of energy independence policies, including those for gas, coal and natural gas, etc. He needs to interlace the military with patriotism, since many rural families have family members who have participated or are currently in service. He also needs to show the electorate that his commitment will extend from his election day to the very last day of his four year term.

“If he can accomplish all these, and if he can win the votes of the majority of the rural voters, the situation will parallel when George W. Bush opened up a vote gap between himself and his rivals back in 2004 and make rural areas 'the electoral college game changer.'”*

In addition, “blue-collar” white voters are also not an ignorable force and can exert great impact on the presidential election. In the 2004 presidential election, blue-collar white voters accounted for 43 percent of all voters, and former president G.W. Bush defeated John Kerry, the Democratic candidate, precisely due to support from “blue-collar” white voters. Voting statistics analyst Ron Brownstein from the National Journal wrote on June 11 that to win the election, Romney must get the support of two-thirds of all blue-collar white voters.

The good news for Romney is that in recent years, the support rate for Republicans amongst blue-collar voters has hovered around the said rate. In 2008, Republican candidate John McCain won 40-58 percent of blue-collar whites’ vote. The current polls show that Obama has only a 33 percent support rate from blue-collar whites.

Brownstein comments in his article that Obama’s support for gay rights will not increase the rate of blue-collar whites’ support, and his initiative to suspend the repatriation of some illegal immigrants has likewise been upsetting to the blue-collar white voters. Thus, this segment of voters is a must-win ground for the Republican Party, and Romney should spend the effort necessary in order to win these votes.

*Editor's note: the original quotation, accurately translated, could not be verified.