The Pros and Cons of the Romney-Ryan ticket

The first spark in Romney’s campaign, choosing young Paul Ryan as his vice presidential candidate (announced on Aug. 11), is a chance to revive his campaign, but it is also quite risky. Here is a short summary of the main advantages and disadvantages of this ticket.

The Advantages

At 42 years old, in shape and not bad on the eyes, Paul Ryan brings a touch of youth to Romney’s campaign. In Washington, Paul Ryan’s day generally begins in the gym at Congress where he coaches a dozen of other Congressmen. At 65 years old, Mitt Romney himself can pass for a younger man (albeit a more conservative one), but his campaign had started to really lose steam and could only putt along.

Finally, here comes a politician with convictions and who is not afraid to help Washington! Already since 2008, Paul Ryan has proposed a plan that would considerably reduce the welfare state, under the pretext of a budget cut. He would practically put an end to Medicaid, the health insurance for America’s poorest. Public insurance for retirees (Medicare) would also be replaced by a coupon system to help seniors pay for private policies. Amended and presented for the coming years under different names (“Ryan’s budget” or “The Path to Prosperity”), Ryan’s propositions aim to drastically reduce the state’s expenses, reducing taxes as well. Paul Ryan has the spunk that Romney was so much lacking — a violent turn-around for the Right.

With Paul Ryan at his side, Mitt Romney can finally assure himself the backing of true-blooded conservatives, who have made his life difficult during the primaries and found him still too “moderate” and “fainthearted.” As Ezra Klein (the excellent Washington Post blogger) predicted last week, by choosing Ryan, Romney will finally get these ruthless [Republican] leaders on board with his campaign. This would awaken the tea party forces that were seen as quite active in the midterm campaign of fall 2012. If Romney wins, Ryan’s presence in the White House would help him keep these hardliners under control. If he loses, his defeat will be theirs as well and perhaps would be a chance for the conservative party to remind itself that elections are generally won at the halfway mark.

Paul Ryan would help change Romney’s image of being “born with a silver spoon in his mouth.” Ryan’s story is that at 16 years old, he discovered his father dead of cardiac arrest in his bed and decided at that moment to hole himself up with his books to perfect his education. A relentless worker, he pursued small jobs as a waiter or gym coach before being able to dedicate himself entirely to politics. So far, Ryan has been able to speak to blue collar workers, who have difficulty empathizing with Romney. His constituency, in southern Wisconsin, is traditionally working class.

The Disadvantages

The Romney-Ryan ticket opens a new door for Democrats to debate social inequalities and the defense of minimal social security, instead of debating unemployment and the still obscure state of the economy.

For a certain number of independents, or all those who are worried about their health coverage, Paul Ryan’s liberal zeal could also be a little too much. In the past, Ryan had even claimed to be a disciple of Ayn Rand, one of the principal libertarianism theoreticians. He already went out of his way to clarify that he isn’t a “true-blood Libertarian” and doesn’t share, namely, Ayn Rand’s radical atheism.

Someone more “Washingtonian” than Ryan wouldn’t hurt. At a time when Americans denounce the mess in Washington more than ever, Romney chose a pure product of Capitol Hill. Even before being elected to Congress in 1998, this champion of “means of the state” had started his career in Washington as a legislative assistant. A paradox which won’t be one for long: Many other tea party spokespeople were cut from the same cloth, including Dick Armey, owner of FreedomWorks.

Can a Catholic “decontaminate” a Mormon? In 1960, John F. Kennedy’s Catholicism made headlines. This year, it’s Romney’s Mormonism, which is still a little hard to swallow for a number of American voters. And just like that Mitt Romney adds a Catholic to his burden! This presidential ticket will be the first in America’s history where religion still plays a central role but doesn’t include a single Protestant.

Paul Ryan comes from Wisconsin, not from Ohio or Florida, like the others recommended for the vice-presidential post (Rob Portman and Marco Rubio, longtime favorites for the role). Wisconsin isn’t totally without interest in the coming presidential election: The state largely voted for Obama in 2008, before electing a Republican governor in 2010. Ryan Paul’s nomination will compel, at least, Democrats to seriously campaign there if Obama wants to win the state. But Wisconsin only represents 10 votes in the Electoral College (which designates the next president out of a total of 538), whereas Ohio has 18 and Florida 29.

No more than Romney, Paul Ryan has absolutely no experience in foreign politics. This is not a problem, Republican strategists decided. The polls show that Americans hardly worry about this issue, as long as the crises that smolder in the Middle East don’t force the United States to intervene.

What if Ryan also flip-flops? The ruthless budget-cutter that we know him to be today also has a past: Like the majority of his Republican friends, Paul Ryan voted during the Bush years for the Iraq invasion, lowering taxes, the extension of payments of retiree medicine, then the propping up of banks and automobile industries. All the measures were financed by credit and originally by the colossal debt which today he aims to reduce.