Why the Election Is Not Yet Won for Obama

Steaming ahead in the polls, the incumbent president must first of all address certain issues regarding his support from the black electorate, Latin Americans and Catholics, as well as the “microtargeting strategy” from the Christian right.

Mitt Romney is possibly the worst presidential candidate from a major party in a long while. According to a survey carried out by the Pew Research Centre, none of his predecessors over the last 15 years, from either the Republicans or the Democrats, have had such a bad public image.

Despite some effort, he has not been able to establish a narrative which would have rendered him more endearing and likeable. He is considered to be distant and cut off from the everyday life of the average American voter (especially financially); his Mormonism is treated with suspicion by certain evangelist Protestants, who usually support the Republicans.

So he has these numerous handicaps, and it doesn’t stop there — we have seen political U-turns (on abortion), embarrassing cover-ups (the healthcare system he helped set up in Massachusetts) and other blunders, such as the comments which were recently made public about the now famous 47 percent of Americans he considers to be assisted by the state, and thus a lost cause for his party.

The consequence of all these factors is that Obama looks to be taking the lead in a whole series of polls recently carried out in the “battleground states,” where the results of the November 6 election will be at stake: Florida and Ohio, integral in the 200 and 2004 elections, but also Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Virginia and North Carolina.

This series of surveys showing support for Obama, along with the accumulation of tactlessness from the Republicans, would lead us to believe that we are heading full throttle toward a re-election of the current president. The national polls, however, remain close, which may be surprising but does not mean much in a ballot that is not decided on a national level, like in France.

Despite the favorable context, Obama’s campaign team faces six worrying issues:

1. They count their chickens before they’ve hatched. They believe the election is already won, which would result in slacking on the part of local activists and less participation from some voters who could easily abstain. Of course, the unprecedented all-out effort of 2008 will not be matched, but they need to be careful that participation does not fall too low.

2. In 2008, participation was particularly remarkable among black voters. However, a repeat of such support has been put seriously into question since Obama’s declaration of his support for gay marriage, most profoundly criticized by black churches who called for their followers to abstain. Will support for the president from important black evangelist figures such as Al Sharpton, who announced support in a press conference on September 21, be enough to encourage more participation among the religious black community?

3. The same problem presents itself among the Catholics who represent one quarter of the electorate and are therefore crucial to the matter. As well as gay marriage, they are strongly opposed to abortion, which is defended by the Democrats (even if a small minority is “pro-life”).

The Catholics, for whom the ideal of social justice is more important than the right to abort, are leaning toward the Democrats. The party sent them some very clear signals at the Charlotte convention in the beginning of September; though, there was a hyper-mediatized controversy over the reintroduction of God and Jerusalem into the convention, which was met with booing from secular activists. Beyond the Catholic electorate, the Democrats are trying to distance themselves from the traditional image of being hostile toward religion, but this may not be enough to attract such an independent and yet-undecided electorate.

4. The Latin Americans — a traditionally Democratic, growing minority (despite their social conservatism, which sometimes means they lean toward the Republicans) — are the other crucial stake in the election. The real question this year is whether they will even be able to vote, since certain laws or clauses, not devoid of partisan ulterior motives, aim to strike them off the electoral register, or at least prevent them from registering (making identification cards with photographs compulsory, something which most Americans, particularly minorities, do not have).

If the Latin Americans, and to a lesser extent the black community, cannot vote on November 6, this will mean less votes for the Democrats, especially in the battleground states — Nevada and Florida for the Hispanics, North Carolina and Virginia for African-Americans.

5. The teacher strike in Chicago, which concluded on September 19, is symptomatic of the limits of Obama’s action plan, as unions have always been a cornerstone of the Democratic Party. His health care reform, which was not gracefully accepted, has been put into question across the states.

Despite the spectacular death of bin Laden, the situation in the Middle East is far from being solved; the recent unrest in the Arab-Muslim world shows that despite the Cairo speech, anti-Americanism still remains. The 112th Congress will probably keep the sad title of the least productive since 1947, especially due to the fierce opposition coming from a House of Representatives which has been led by the Republicans since the bitter defeat of the Democrats in the mid-term elections of 2010. The disappointment of some could encourage the triumphalism of others, similarly to the elements which led to lack of interest from voters in 2008, as mentioned above.

6. Finally, encouraged by Ralph Reed, a leading thinker from the Christian right, conservative evangelists are setting in motion a considerably powerful campaign to motivate people, thanks to the “microtargeting” strategy which allowed strategist Karl Rove to contribute decisively to the re-election of George W. Bush in 2004, despite it being a complicated situation.

With less than two months to go before the election, the question of participation remains valid for both sides. The polls are currently favoring the Democrats; the Republican candidate is neither the most charismatic nor the smartest. However, between the possible causes of lack of motivation on the Democrat side and a shaky conservative start marked more by hostility toward Obama than by enthusiasm for Romney, the American presidential campaign of 2012 is far from won.

But let us not forget that winning the election is only half the battle. The Democrats must also mobilize themselves in order to increase their majority in the Senate and win back the House of Representatives, and thus the ability to propose laws. These ballots, just as important as the race to the White House, are unfairly under-covered by the media.

Lauric Henneton is a lecturer at Versailles-Saint-Quentin University, and has recently published “Histoire Religeuse des Etats-Unis” [A Religious History of the United States] (Flammarion).