Washington Stung by Korean "Hornet"

North Korea’s threat of nuclear war has not been taken at face value. But the U.S. is wondering if a threshold has been crossed.

The North Korean “hornet” has been regularly buzzing in the ears of the U.S. giant for 60 years now, increasing its aggressive declarations and its armed challenges to South Korea, Washington’s strategic ally. Washington has guaranteed South Korea’s safety since the ceasefire of the Korean War in 1953.

“A very well-rehearsed minuet,” notes former U.S. Ambassador Chas Freeman, an expert on Asia and the Middle East.* Time and time again, Pyongyang has issued a challenge to which Washington and Seoul respond with military exercises, all the while calling on North Korea to give up its aggressive position in exchange for an end to its isolation. Time and time again, Pyongyang has retreated until the next outburst of aggression.

But, since the North Korean communist regime has successfully carried out three nuclear tests and sent a satellite into orbit since the beginning of 2013, concern is becoming more tangible in Washington — where, obsessed by the Iranian nuclear bomb, Pyongyang had been almost forgotten … North Korea’s recent threats of imminent, possibly nuclear, attacks on American territory, in particular Guam and Hawaii, may not have been taken at face value, but the Americans are wondering if a threshold has been crossed. “They have a nuclear capacity now. They have a missile delivery capacity now … some of the actions they have taken over the last few weeks, present a real and clear danger,” concluded U.S. Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel on Wednesday.

The White House is ruling out the possibility that North Korea currently has the capacity to attack U.S. territory. “This capacity does not exist, at least, not yet,” concluded Michele Flournoy, former undersecretary of defense for policy in Obama’s government.* Some experts believe that North Korea could already have intercontinental missiles and would be able to equip nuclear warheads within the next five years. What is imminently feared, however, is a conflict between the two Koreas that could explode by “accident” as a result of a build-up of challenges and poorly controlled responses.

Strategic Bombers and Anti-Missile Batteries

The personality of the new North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, the third in a sad dynasty of paranoid dictators, is seen as an increasing risk. “Our fear is that he does not understand the rules of the game or its limits,” notes Michele Flournoy.* The risk is all the greater because “South Korea has become a more independent player than America,” according to former ambassador Chas Freeman.* However, Seoul is losing patience. The attack carried out in 2010 by a North Korean submarine on a South Korean boat, resulting in 46 deaths, remains engraved in their memory. While new President Park Geun-hye — who Pyongyang is testing — has thus far remained calm, she has also authorized her soldiers to retaliate to any new challenges. “Our fear is that Seoul will be drawn into a conflict,” summarizes Chas Freeman.

To prevent such a scenario, Washington is increasing its military gestures with the intent of reassuring both the American general public and its South Korean ally. Strategic bombers flew over the peninsula to dissuade any North Korean attacks and to show that the U.S. remains completely on the side of Seoul. Anti-missile batteries will be deployed in the next days to U.S. military base in Guam in the Pacific with the same aim. Secretary of State John Kerry will be in Seoul and Beijing next week.

However, the Americans are fundamentally struggling to find a suitable response that would enable progress to be made on a conflict which has remained unresolved for 60 years. “The reality is that the coexistence of a prosperous, recognized and respected South Korea with a poor, dictator-led North Korea, whose survival depends on the perpetuation of the country’s isolation, is becoming increasingly intolerable,” says Chas Freeman. China has tried to find a solution by cajoling its northern ally and by gently inviting it to change. In contrast, the U.S. has chosen sanctions and isolation. But “by pulling in different directions, Washington and Beijing both have failed completely,” notes former Ambassador Freeman.

The solution, still quite uncertain, could come from a mood change from the Chinese, who, Washington would like to believe, are showing signs of impatience. Nervous at the idea of seeing Pyongyang acquiring nuclear weapons, China has begun making overtures toward Seoul, who has become an important trade partner. Washington hopes to capitalize on this turnaround by joining forces with China and making the North Koreans see some kind of reason. On Wednesday, Chuck Hagel seemed optimistic, recalling “the excellent telephone conversation” which he had had with Beijing.

*Editor’s Note: These quotes, while accurately translated, could not be verified.