US Debt Crisis Averted, but Betrays Signs of Decline

Published in Wen Wei Po
(Hong Kong) on 18 October 2013
by Editorial (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Nathan Hsu. Edited by .

Edited by Eva Langman

In the nick of time, the U.S. Congress finally passed a bill to fund government operations and raise the debt ceiling. President Obama signed the bill immediately into law, granting the world a temporary respite from the looming U.S. debt crisis. But in truth, the world has not seen the last of either the tug-of-war battle over raising the debt ceiling or government shutdowns, as these financial and political crises have evolved into intractable structural conflicts. From the prevailing political and economic climate in the U.S., we can logically deduce that these crises will only increase in frequency and that the country's status as a world power, as well as its influence, is now destined for a steady and almost inescapable decline.

In the past half-century, the U.S. has raised the debt ceiling 75 times, largely accomplished without protestation from the opposition party and with the issue of the debt ceiling garnering little attention. However, now the trend toward extremism within the political feud between donkey and elephant is becoming ever more apparent. Driven by a "votes over all else" mentality, the parties are hyper-focused on their supporters' interests, with partisan bickering supplanting work in the national and public interest, and radicalization of the system of interparty checks and balances. The political divide is widening; it has not only become more difficult to reach an agreement on the debt issue, but the debt ceiling has become simply another political bargaining chip and a tool to force opponents to compromise. These tactics transform financial woes into political calamity, giving rise to even more political and economic challenges for the future. One could say that the recurring U.S. debt ceiling drama illustrates how American democracy, which has consistently been held up as a model for the rest of the world to follow, is now in decline.

This time around, the crisis has shaken both the U.S. and global economies. As a result of these events, the U.S. federal government was shut down for 16 days, with economic losses amounting to $24 billion and fourth-quarter gross domestic product slipping by 0.6 percent. Standard and Poor's also adjusted its estimate for U.S. economic growth in 2013 downward from 3 to 2 percent. Currently, global economic and financial markets are becoming highly integrated; the U.S. dollar is the world's primary reserve currency, with most commodities also priced in dollars. If the U.S. truly defaults on its debt, the global economy will inevitably fall into a downward spiral. And although the debt crisis has been averted for the time being, the U.S. will certainly have suffered a blow to its reputation, which will in turn affect capital markets worldwide.

With constant shocks from globalization and the continuing impact of the polarization around [issues of] employment and welfare, the rise in the financial deficit and national debt of the U.S. has proved difficult to reverse. Since breaching the $4 trillion mark in the 1980s, U.S. debt has ballooned to almost $17 trillion, surpassing its GDP. Meanwhile, consequent political confrontations have intensified by the day. This makes evident that the U.S. financial and political crises have evolved into intractable structural conflicts — ones that have caused endless internal strife, impeded the country's development and heralded the decline of the U.S.


美國國會兩院終於在債務違約死線前通過提高債務上限、為政府撥款的議案,議案隨即由總統奧巴馬簽署成為法律,牽動世界的美國債務風波暫告段落。事實上,由於財政危機和政爭危機已成為難以解決的結構性矛盾,提升債務上限拉鋸戰、政府關閉將司空見慣。按照美國目前的政治經濟邏輯發展下去,美國政治危機、經濟危機將越來越頻繁,其大國地位、國家實力難逃不斷滑落的命運。

過去50多年,美國曾經75次提高國債上限,並未受到反對黨太大的阻力而獲得通過,債務上限問題並不太引人注目。但是,如今美國政壇的驢象之爭極端化傾向愈發明顯,在「選票至上」的驅使下,政黨一切以支持者利益為重,將黨爭凌駕於國家利益、公眾利益之上,兩黨互相制衡的政治制度走向極端。黨爭鬧劇愈演愈烈,兩黨不僅就債務上限問題達成妥協變得越來越困難,而且更把債務上限作為進行政治要價、迫使對方妥協的工具,將財政問題演變為政治災難,對美國政治經濟前景帶來更多的問題和挑戰。可以說,美國債務上限危機的鬧劇一再上演,顯示一向標榜為世界典範的美式民主已經衰落。

此次美債危機,對美國及世界經濟穩定均造成衝擊。受事件影響,美國聯邦政府關門16天,經濟損失達240億美元,第4季GDP下滑0.6%。標準普爾更將美國2013年經濟增長,從原本預估的3%下修到2%。當前,全球經濟和金融市場高度一體化,美元是全球主要儲備貨幣和大宗商品的主要定價貨幣,如果美國真的發生債務違約,必然牽連全球經濟跌入漩渦。此次美債危機雖然暫時化解,卻不可避免地會降低美國信譽,影響了全球資本市場的走勢。

隨著全球化和兩極分化對就業及福利形勢的不斷衝擊,美國財政赤字和國債大幅上升難以扭轉,美國國債從1980年代突破4萬億美元後,現在已經達到近17萬億美元,超過了美國年度GDP;同時,由此引發的政治對抗日益激化。這反映美國財政危機、政爭危機已成為難以化解的結構性矛盾,引發內耗不斷、阻礙國家發展,令美國步向衰落。
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