Societal Polarization in the US and Turkey

When compared to the United States, the continuous societal tension which Turkey experiences as a result of lifestyle differences and social engineering is much more sensational. However, American politics is experiencing a period of extreme polarization. In fact there are some very striking similarities between American and Turkish politics. In the past few years both countries have been experiencing a large-scale rupture on both a political and societal level. In both countries there is a bitter struggle between the party in power and the opposition. The most important areas in this ideological battle are the print and visual media.

As I’ve mentioned before in my writing, in the United States if you watch a little Fox News you will be given the impression that Obama is a Muslim socialist dictator. On the other hand, MSNBC, the choice of the Democrats, doesn’t shy away from showing the Republicans as a fascist party. Another similarity between the United States and Turkey is the constant feeling of being in an election. Local, national, presidential and midterm elections mean that as soon as one election ends, another one begins.

In my opinion, the societal and political dynamics don’t tell the entire story. To understand the increasing tension in both nations it is important to look at the economy. Obama, who despite the poor economy won the 2012 election with unexpected ease, is experiencing the most difficult days of his political career. Despite the fact that the economy is showing small signs of recovery, the unemployment rate refuses to drop. Obama’s Social Security and health care reforms in this polarized atmosphere are being portrayed by the minority Republicans in an exaggerated manner as the “creeping steps of socialism.” On the other hand, the relative recovery of the U.S. economy is being threatened by budget cuts and the Federal Reserve’s indication that it will pursue a tighter monetary policy.

When we look at Turkey, there is a similar situation. Behind the political tension there is a struggling economy. The Turkish economy, as a result of its high trade deficit, is on fragile ground. The trade deficit, which is related to energy and raw material imports, has not yet reached dangerous levels thanks to an inflow of hot money.

The Fed flooded the entire world with liquidity in the past few years with its implementation of extremely low interest rates and flexible monetary policy. If the chairman of the Fed signals for higher interest rates, global liquidity is going to decrease. In emerging markets like Turkey an outflow of hot money has already been going on for a while. Only an implementation of high interest rates would cause this outflow of hot money to stop. This situation is pumping up the political tension in Turkey because it will create serious problems related to high interest rates, the rate of growth, production and unemployment.

Turkey will hold its local election in March 2014, at a time when these serious problems start to emerge in the economic sector. And these local elections will be an important indicator of what is to come in the next 10 years. The Justice and Development Party’s performance in the election will determine the calculations in parliament and if there will be a change to the presidential system in Turkey. What is the most important factor in determining the potential vote? The economy, of course. The election held in 2009, the last time the Turkish economy was giving alarm signals, saw the Justice and Development party take 39 percent of the vote. However, two years later in the general election, with a strong economy, their percentage of the vote increased to 50. For this reason it is important not to look at the polarization in the U.S. and Turkey from solely a political and sociological standpoint. It is also helpful to examine it from an economic perspective.