Reality Is Impertinent Enough Not To Fit Obama’s Scenario

Ever since he assumed office in 2008, the world has changed considerably from the way the American politician envisioned it, foreign news correspondent Paul Brill writes. Obama is struggling with Ukraine and Russia, Israel and the Palestinians, and the Syrian civil war. The world does not easily let itself be sculpted or pigeonholed.

A sight not to be forgotten: Barack Obama’s visit to Berlin in 2008. The incredible number of 200,000 Berliners filled out the broad avenue between the Brandenburger Gate and the Victory Column, and fervently cheered on the American presidential candidate. It was a beautiful day, and a journalist reported that it appeared as if Obama were walking on water on stage. The crowd eagerly listened to his words as if these contained a pain-relieving medicine. Behold, the new America — or, at least the anti-Bush.

There was so much enthusiasm that even Obama’s staff became a bit nervous. For it was possible that the American voters would be offended by the fact that a politician who still had to undergo the ultimate electoral test at home was already being praised abroad.

Things may change. I was reminded of Obama’s triumph in Berlin when this week, I was reading a column by Leon Wieseltier in the New Republic. [It is] a column of a very critical nature, one that does not do justice to Obama’s achievements and the huge weight that was placed upon his shoulders, but which, in essence, holds a lot of truth: His presidency has reached a point where the United States’ global prestige is actually faring no better than when George Bush sat in the White House.

“Our enemies no longer fear us, and our allies no longer trust us.”* And this lack of trust is not so much a result of the wrongdoings of the U.S. (spying on allied heads of state), as it is a result of what it is failing to do (showing leadership and setting clear boundaries).

Reality Does Not Fit the Scenario

Wieseltier’s column is titled “The Inconvenience of History,” and in this title an important explanation for Obama’s foreign misadventures can be discerned. He had imagined that the course of events would go a lot smoother than they did.

Put more cynically, reality is impertinent enough not to fit his scenario. This scenario began with ending military presence in Iraq, and through a number of steps — a resumption of relations with Russia; an extended hand to Iraq; renewed diplomatic involvement in the Israeli-Palestinian peace process (or what is supposed to pass for it) — would allow for a strengthening of the American strategic position in East Asia (the pivot to Asia), while a more modest role is to suffice elsewhere in the world (leading from behind). And of course, all this also serves to provide the domestic economy with a new pulse as well as to implement a number of much-wanted reforms.

Alas, the world does not easily let itself be sculpted or pigeonholed. Israel and the Palestinians once more show themselves to be exceptionally recalcitrant discussion partners. Great speeches have not caused the Islamic world to consider the U.S. in a more positive light. Vladimir Putin is following an agenda that does not really allow for the constructive relationship Obama had in mind. Leading from behind may be a good slogan, but it does require willingness of others to stand in the frontlines, and this willingness is currently lacking. The same also applies in a political sense; an example of this is the German ambivalence regarding Ukraine.

To Otherwise Ignore Putin

Obama tends to view these kinds of difficulties as side issues. An analysis in The New York Times reported that the president has come to the conclusion that it is no longer viable to remain on good terms with Putin and that for the remainder of his presidency he will attempt to try “to minimize the disruption Mr. Putin can cause, preserve whatever marginal cooperation can be saved and otherwise ignore the master of the Kremlin.”

But how can you, as a world power, ignore someone who is exerting so much power and is threatening to disrupt European planning? How can you turn this into a separate issue within foreign policy?

Currently, Obama is visiting Japan, South Korea, Malaysia and the Philippines. It cannot be said in so many words, but these visits are of course meant as a signal to China that the security and territorial immunity of these aforementioned countries — all of which are in conflict with Beijing — is also an American interest. A useful signal. But the countries in question will undoubtedly be keeping a watchful eye on Washington’s proceedings in dealing with the conflict in Ukraine. Is there a red line, and is this red line worth more than the one in Syria? The answer to this will be an indication of the amount of trust these countries will have in the American guarantees regarding their own safety.

*Editor’s note: This was spoken by Congressman Adam Kinzinger.