Better a Buffer than a Bargaining Chip Between US and China

President Xi Jinping’s visit to South Korea has brought about widespread scrutiny from around the world over China’s relationships with South Korea and its other neighbors. And any discussion that touches upon China’s foreign relations naturally turns to another nation, the United States.

The U.S. “pivot to Asia” strategy is meant for no other purpose than to balance out the impact of China’s development, and strategic tension between the two powers is seemingly on the rise. But the China-U.S. relationship is not a zero-sum game. The two are currently both exploring the possibilities of a “new model of great power relations,” although just how similar their understandings of that concept are remains unclear.

China’s neighbors all live under the shadow of China-U.S. relations, and whether those countries reap the benefits or must endure the fallout of that relationship hinges upon the nature of the competition between the two powers, as well as the ability of the other countries in striking a suitable balance. For the time being, it would seem that South Korea has been fairly successful in this regard.

The U.S. is an ally of South Korea, while China is its largest trading partner. South Korea’s military security and economic development rely upon the U.S. and China respectively. Because of their proximity, as well as acute and long-standing problems on the peninsula, there has been no shortage of suppressed grudges and flare-up disputes between China and South Korea. If the two adopt a rash posture on any one of those issues, it could cast relations between the two nations into the sea of uncertainty that at times appears to define international politics.

For some time now, however, rationality has prevailed in China-South Korea relations. In the midst of its alliance with the U.S. and standoff with North Korea, South Korea’s relations with China have developed to a remarkable extent and borne fruit for the peninsular nation. The steady accumulation of profits has most likely boosted South Korea’s confidence in playing the part of a buffer between the U.S. and China, and year by year, South Korea has quite clearly reaped more strategic benefits than the entirely U.S.-leaning Japan.

There is nothing extraordinary about Japan’s conflict with China. The crux of the issue has been Japan’s inimical view of China’s rise, leading Tokyo to actively borrow American power and unite a minority of Asian nations in its efforts to check China. However, China-U.S. relations are not as poor as Japan might wish. Japan’s full-on tilt toward the U.S. has delighted Washington, but at the same time, the accordingly excessive amount of requests put upon it have put the U.S. in an awkward position. While the U.S. lacks any intention to have it out with China, Japan itself is spoiling for a fight. As a consequence, it has been met with concentrated Chinese counterstrikes, and backing from the U.S. will only go so far.

While the U.S. and China maintain an intricate relationship of both competition and cooperation, it is foolhardy for Asian nations to lean entirely on the U.S. in matters of security. As long as the U.S. does not choose to take it upon itself to cross swords strategically with China, those nations will only lead themselves into a trap of their own making. The misguided belief that the U.S. will intercede on their behalf is exceedingly a childish fantasy.

Neighboring countries must be capable of prudently planning for China’s rise. China has no wayward ambitions to lead Asia, nor does it reject the continued presence of U.S. forces in Asia. The temperate nature of China’s rise should be wholly apparent. Nations that share territorial disputes with China should limit their grievances to the bounds of the disputes rather than allow them to spill over into unchecked strategic escalation and all-out opposition to China. With China’s growing strength, setting a collision course with the rising power is certain strategic suicide.

As for China’s part, it has already begun to share the dividends of its development with its neighbors. Through proper planning for China’s rise, neighboring states can garner even greater attention and economic benefits from the U.S. and other powers. As long as the U.S. and China adhere to a moderate course, neither will have strong objections to Asian countries performing a balancing act between the two, and the overall board between China and the U.S. will remain full of opportunity for smaller nations. That “it’s tough to be the little guy” is not a formula set in stone.

The strategic structure of the Asia-Pacific region has not yet stabilized, and it remains a dynamic menagerie of intricately interwoven nations, both large and small. Each state’s national interests are replete with fleeting temptations, but those that make their mark through promoting cohesion and buffering conflict with an eye to the greater picture will see their strategic outcomes be better by far than those that create division and tension. “The good are rewarded, and the evil punished” is a principle that can be applied not only to individuals, but also to countries within the Asia-Pacific community.