He Said the “I-Word”

George W. Bush’s devastating Iraq war — built on a foundation of lies — continues to cast long shadows. It is the reason why nations are crumbling and the Middle East continues its decline into chaos. Because of it, national leaders who supported it have fallen out of favor with their citizens and because of it, Hillary Clinton lost her bid for the presidency to Barack Obama — as a senator, she had voted in favor of invading Iraq.

A possible new victim of the Iraq war: Jeb Bush. Even though he has yet to officially declare his candidacy for president, all indications are that the ex-Florida governor wants to become the third Bush in the White House, following his father (1989-1993) and his brother George W. (2001-2009).

Up until just a few days ago, he did seem to be the most promising candidate in the Republican field to have that opportunity. Moreover, because of his experience and his tendency for moderation on questions of immigration, and foreign and social policy, he seemed to be the best—and from the European point of view most tolerable—choice.

Although not a firebrand orator and for the extreme right of the Republican Party, far too soft and insufficiently ideological, Bush was nonetheless the favorite of the Republican establishment and the biggest donors because in the final analysis they knew that it wasn’t the political hothead who had the best chance of winning in middle America in 2016 but rather the moderate candidate.

But Bush number three may have frittered away his chances before having ever stepped onto the playing field. In the past week, he stumbled precisely into the trap he should have avoided at all costs.

When asked whether knowing what he knew now, he would have invaded Iraq, he answered, “Yes,” and went on to mistakenly claim that Hillary Clinton would answer the same.

Amid the gasps of horror and the resulting protests that statement caused, Bush first tried to take refuge in the excuse that he hadn’t understood the question. Only after four days and another four tortured answers did he change his mind, and answered with a definite “no.”

He couldn’t have made a worse error. He not only missed his chance to present himself as his own man and not just “the third Bush” who wanted to keep the family dynasty going. He also missed another important — perhaps the most important — opportunity, namely to assure people once and for all that his election would not be just a continuation of his unfortunate and highly controversial brother’s presidency.

Indeed, Republicans regard George W. Bush’s presidency more leniently now than they did earlier. A New York Times/CBS survey shows that seven out of 10 Republicans rate Bush highly and think that Barack Obama has made far graver foreign policy errors than Iraq warrior George W. Bush.

But the majority of Americans do not share that sentiment. The Iraq war continues to be unpopular not only because of the numerous U.S. casualties it caused, but also because George W. Bush lied through his teeth about the reason the U.S. went to war, and because the war made everything far worse for the world, doing irreparable damage to America’s global image.

In view of public opinion, it’s hard to understand why Jeb Bush stepped into that trap with eyes wide open. Why wasn’t he better prepared for such an obvious question about the Iraq war?

If Jeb Bush runs, he now runs the risk not of having to defend his positions against Obama’s record but against the eight-year presidency of his own brother.