What the Hell Is Wrong With Those Americans?
Published in Die Welt
(Germany) on 20 January 2016
by Clemens Wergin (link to original)
(Germany) on 20 January 2016
by Clemens Wergin (link to original)
Translated from
by Ron Argentati.
Edited by Helaine Schweitzer.
The chances are increasing that Donald Trump will, indeed, be the Republican Party's choice to run for president. Now, one political pundit offers a startling explanation for Trump's ongoing popularity in the polls.
Donald Trump's poll numbers are rising and many people are asking why so many Americans are attracted to him. Experts say Trump fulfills the longing for a strong, authoritarian leader.
For months, American political analysts have been predicting that the phenomenon that is Donald Trump will eventually tire and the candidate favored by the establishment wing of the party will be nominated, but the nation is still waiting for that to happen. The first primary votes are about to be cast and, according to RealClearPolitics, Donald Trump still has a comfortable lead nationwide of 15 percent among Republican voters.
And those who believed Trump would eventually shoot himself in the foot with all of his offensive rhetoric about immigrants, women or Muslims should be disabused of that notion. Instead, surveys conducted by NBC and the Wall Street Journal show a disturbing trend. While last March only 23 percent of Republicans responded they would consider voting for Trump, that has now risen to 65 percent. Accordingly, the number saying they could not imagine voting for him has sunk dramatically.
So it's about time to start considering that something unthinkable just a few months ago could now actually become reality: Trump could become the Republican candidate for president of the United States.
But what makes Trump so attractive to so many people? Why do so many admire this inflated braggart? The experts have come up with a variety of explanations. Many Americans are suffering under the conditions in their country – decades of stagnating middle-class incomes and the feeling that the American Dream is becoming less and less attainable for many.
That is connected to a deep mistrust of the elites in politics and business and anger at what many see as a conspiracy against the little guy – a feeling widespread also among Democrats that also explains the popularity and appeal of Bernie Sanders.
The Candidate of Frightened Authoritarians
Trump scores points with his anti-immigrant position mainly among poorly educated whites who feel themselves losers in a rapidly advancing multicultural society across the nation – so goes one currently popular explanation. But they are answers that polling expert Matthew MacWilliams says don't dig deeply enough.
"I found that education, income, gender, age, ideology and religiosity had no significant bearing on a Republican voter’s preferred candidate," Matthew MacWilliams wrote in an essay published in Politico. His surveys found only two indicators that correlate in any significant statistical way with the real estate mogul's sympathies: a tendency toward authoritarianism and a fear of terrorism.
MacWilliams writes that authoritarian characters are by no means limited to Republicans. In national surveys conducted since 1992, many authoritarians identify themselves as Democrats or Independents. “In the 2008 Democratic primary, the political scientist Marc Hetherington found that authoritarianism mattered more than income, ideology, gender, age and education in predicting whether voters preferred Hillary Clinton over Barack Obama,” MacWilliams reported.
In the last 14 years, however, more authoritarians have defected from the Democratic ranks and crossed over to the Republicans. According to his research, the top 49 percent of Republican voters hold authoritarian beliefs whereas, on the Democratic side, only about half that number tend to be authoritarian. Among Independents, they make up about 39 percent. And the more a voter is frightened of terrorism, [such as] by the December attack in San Bernardino, the more likely he is to agree with Trump's solutions – even if he has no other apparent authoritarian tendencies.
The Trump Movement Resembles France's Front Nationale
In order to determine who follows authoritarian thought patterns, pollsters ask questions about raising children: Which do they prefer, a respectful child or an independent one? Docile or self-sufficient? Compliant or questioning? Well-mannered or inquisitive? Those who lean toward the former in all four pairings are considered to have authoritarian characteristics.
Unlike other political opinion polls, MacWilliams included these questions in his survey and found a correlation between authoritarian beliefs and support for Trump. It is the yearning for machismo.
The Trump movement would, therefore, be similar to authoritarian populist movements in Europe which have also channeled anger toward the establishment such as Marine Le Pen's Front Nationale in France. “Trump support is firmly rooted in American authoritarianism and, once awakened, it is a force to be reckoned with,” wrote MacWilliams.
Whether this explanation of the Trump phenomenon is sufficient to illuminate the subject remains to be seen. But it does provide an interesting answer to the question that puzzles Trump: "What the hell is wrong with those Americans?"
Donald Trump's poll numbers are rising and many people are asking why so many Americans are attracted to him. Experts say Trump fulfills the longing for a strong, authoritarian leader.
For months, American political analysts have been predicting that the phenomenon that is Donald Trump will eventually tire and the candidate favored by the establishment wing of the party will be nominated, but the nation is still waiting for that to happen. The first primary votes are about to be cast and, according to RealClearPolitics, Donald Trump still has a comfortable lead nationwide of 15 percent among Republican voters.
And those who believed Trump would eventually shoot himself in the foot with all of his offensive rhetoric about immigrants, women or Muslims should be disabused of that notion. Instead, surveys conducted by NBC and the Wall Street Journal show a disturbing trend. While last March only 23 percent of Republicans responded they would consider voting for Trump, that has now risen to 65 percent. Accordingly, the number saying they could not imagine voting for him has sunk dramatically.
So it's about time to start considering that something unthinkable just a few months ago could now actually become reality: Trump could become the Republican candidate for president of the United States.
But what makes Trump so attractive to so many people? Why do so many admire this inflated braggart? The experts have come up with a variety of explanations. Many Americans are suffering under the conditions in their country – decades of stagnating middle-class incomes and the feeling that the American Dream is becoming less and less attainable for many.
That is connected to a deep mistrust of the elites in politics and business and anger at what many see as a conspiracy against the little guy – a feeling widespread also among Democrats that also explains the popularity and appeal of Bernie Sanders.
The Candidate of Frightened Authoritarians
Trump scores points with his anti-immigrant position mainly among poorly educated whites who feel themselves losers in a rapidly advancing multicultural society across the nation – so goes one currently popular explanation. But they are answers that polling expert Matthew MacWilliams says don't dig deeply enough.
"I found that education, income, gender, age, ideology and religiosity had no significant bearing on a Republican voter’s preferred candidate," Matthew MacWilliams wrote in an essay published in Politico. His surveys found only two indicators that correlate in any significant statistical way with the real estate mogul's sympathies: a tendency toward authoritarianism and a fear of terrorism.
MacWilliams writes that authoritarian characters are by no means limited to Republicans. In national surveys conducted since 1992, many authoritarians identify themselves as Democrats or Independents. “In the 2008 Democratic primary, the political scientist Marc Hetherington found that authoritarianism mattered more than income, ideology, gender, age and education in predicting whether voters preferred Hillary Clinton over Barack Obama,” MacWilliams reported.
In the last 14 years, however, more authoritarians have defected from the Democratic ranks and crossed over to the Republicans. According to his research, the top 49 percent of Republican voters hold authoritarian beliefs whereas, on the Democratic side, only about half that number tend to be authoritarian. Among Independents, they make up about 39 percent. And the more a voter is frightened of terrorism, [such as] by the December attack in San Bernardino, the more likely he is to agree with Trump's solutions – even if he has no other apparent authoritarian tendencies.
The Trump Movement Resembles France's Front Nationale
In order to determine who follows authoritarian thought patterns, pollsters ask questions about raising children: Which do they prefer, a respectful child or an independent one? Docile or self-sufficient? Compliant or questioning? Well-mannered or inquisitive? Those who lean toward the former in all four pairings are considered to have authoritarian characteristics.
Unlike other political opinion polls, MacWilliams included these questions in his survey and found a correlation between authoritarian beliefs and support for Trump. It is the yearning for machismo.
The Trump movement would, therefore, be similar to authoritarian populist movements in Europe which have also channeled anger toward the establishment such as Marine Le Pen's Front Nationale in France. “Trump support is firmly rooted in American authoritarianism and, once awakened, it is a force to be reckoned with,” wrote MacWilliams.
Whether this explanation of the Trump phenomenon is sufficient to illuminate the subject remains to be seen. But it does provide an interesting answer to the question that puzzles Trump: "What the hell is wrong with those Americans?"
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