They’re Targeting Russia, But Will Hit Their Own Kind

Political analyst Yevgeyny Minchenko on the most likely consequences of the American senators’ new bill.

The essence of the new bill introduced by U.S. senators is the following. Inside the Republican Party, there are a few senators intently building their political clout on the conflict with Russia. These are, first and foremost, John McCain and Lindsey Graham. They are the main instigators of all initiatives made toward toughening the U.S. stance on Russia.

For a long time, they have actively criticized Democrats and specifically Obama for his excessive leniency toward Russia. It suffices to recall that during the presidential debates in 2012, Mitt Romney called Russia America’s number one geopolitical foe, while Barack Obama mocked him. It is especially interesting that following this, Romney was mocked by the very same liberal mass media outlets that are currently telling the world how dangerous and scary Russia is and actively distributing information on “Russia’s interference in the American election” and Moscow’s supposed threat to democracy.

Anyway, at the time, those same pro-Democratic mass media outlets portrayed Romney as a dimwitted politician. “How could Russia be the number one geopolitical foe?” they wrote.

Criticizing Obama for his excessive leniency toward Russia has become a tradition for a significant section of the Republican Party. During the latest presidential campaign, vice-presidential candidate Mike Pence slammed Obama and Hillary Clinton in his debate with Tim Kaine for their excessive leniency toward Russia and called for a tougher stance on the Ukrainian situation in particular. Inside the Republican Party, there is a rather influential wing which believes that Russia must be punished for its politics. Thus, the very fact of this legislation’s appearance shouldn’t be too surprising.

Another question is, why did this initiative appear now? This is most likely an attempt to block Rex Tillerson, whom Donald Trump has nominated for the position of secretary of state, to first, weaken Trump and second, steer the issue of Trump’s connection to Russia to its logical conclusion.

Meanwhile, it should be noted that Republican support for similar bills will not only create problems for Rex Tillerson, but also deliver a blow to their own party.

For the first time since 1920, Republicans have the opportunity to control not only the presidential post and both chambers of Congress, but also the Supreme Court. Moreover, Republicans already control two-thirds of the regional legislative assemblies and the majority of governors.

This means that currently, the Republican Party is completely dominating the American public sphere. Under these conditions, orchestrating a schism around the rather minor situation with Russia would be, to put it mildly, shortsighted.

Thus, I am inclined to believe that this initiative will remain a public relations stunt and won’t be fully implemented. I would dare say that Republicans will be at least smart enough not to undermine their party’s newly-elected president, although there is a risk that the bill will pass.

In any case, this is all Republican Party internal business and related to Trump’s relationship with the establishment, and Russia must not react to it. However, we understand that customary anti-Russian sentiment in the American establishment, including the Republican one, is very high. And President Donald Trump will obviously have to do something about it in the near future.

As for us, we’ll have to watch closely what our politicians say. All statements insulting official U.S. figures, including President Barack Obama, and especially those with a racist subtext, are currently unacceptable. Americans have that peculiarity. They may hate Obama and believe his politics to be extremely harmful, but they still take offense at any insults from abroad. Thus, it is very important not to resort to confrontational, insulting language vis-à-vis the departing president.

The author is president of the Minchenko Consulting holding company.