Border Closure: Playing with Fire

Published in La Jornada
(Mexico) on 30 March 2019
by Editorial (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Madeleine Ramsey. Edited by Denile Doyle.
Yesterday, the president of the United States, Donald Trump, again threatened that if his Mexican counterpart does not stop the flow of Central American immigrants arriving at the border with the intention of traveling to the U.S., he will fully or partially close the border that separates his country from Mexico. The new barrage of bravado is directed against Mexico and the Democratic Party, which he blames for his country’s weak immigration legislation. This threat this week differs from preceding threats, as for the first time he has announced a deadline for the drastic measure, which he hopes will transform the xenophobia of his citizens into a permanent campaign.

Despite the flippancy with which the business mogul talks of closing the 3,000-kilometer (1,864 miles) border separating him from his third biggest trading partner, it is in no way a minor issue. More than 1 million people a day cross through the numerous entry points to study or work on the other side of where they reside. The metropolitan area formed by Tijuana and San Diego alone contributes to human traffic ranging from 100,000 people a day to more than 30 million a year. In addition to the movement of humans, there is also commercial traffic. It is estimated that every day, the customs office witnesses the passage of $1.4 billion worth of goods, which in economic terms makes this border the most important in the world. For U.S. territories next to the border, the eventual halt of this trade would be simply catastrophic. In the case of Texas, 463,000 jobs (and $94 billion) depend on business through the border with Mexico, and in California, this number rises to 692,000.

Naturally, the consequences of prohibiting or restricting the bilateral passage of goods and people will set off alarm bells on both sides of the border and will generate intense pressure from U.S. business organizations to ensure that the Republican leader will under no circumstances move from words to action. Not only does lobbying stand between Trump and his nefarious intimidation tactics, but also the fact that while the presidential system of governance in Washington awards ample power to the head of state, so, too, does it empower a series of legal restrictions that would impede or reverse a unilateral border closure. These range from a lack of any legal precedent for stopping American citizens from returning to their country from Mexico, to specific provisions in the North American Free Trade Agreement. It is also worth mentioning the previous history of the courts reversing his other intended actions, such as his proposed travel ban on citizens from Muslim-majority countries.

Unfortunately, it is not even necessary for Trump’s threats to come to fruition to cause damage. After a series of tweets explaining his proposals, this damage was demonstrated by the fall in price of the peso and the slowing of the Mexican stock exchange. For the material and human losses that it brings, not only to Mexico, but to his own country, as well as the proven futility of these types of measures for controlling the flow of migration, the entire American political class should appeal to the tycoon to cease his use of this political and propagandistic rhetorical device, which it is so easy to lose control of.



Cierre fronterizo: jugar con fuego

Ayer, el presidente estadunidense, Donald Trump, volvió a amenazar con un cierre total o parcial de la frontera terrestre que separa a su país de México si su contraparte mexicana no detiene el flujo de migrantes centroamericanos que atraviesan la nación en su intento de llegar a Estados Unidos. La nueva andanada de bravuconadas contra México y el Partido Demócrata –al que culpa de la "débil" legislación migratoria de su país– se diferencia de anteriores amagos de Trump en que por primera vez mencionó un plazo para la drástica medida, con lo cual parece subir la apuesta en su pulso por atizar la xenofobia de los ciudadanos de su país como estrategia de campaña permanente.

Pese a la ligereza con que el magnate habla del cierre de la frontera de 3 mil kilómetros que lo separa de su tercer socio comercial, no se trata en modo alguno de una cuestión menor. Por las diferentes garitas fronterizas cruza cada día más de un millón de personas, en ambas direcciones para estudiar o trabajar en el lado contrario a aquel en el cual reside; sólo en el área metropolitana formada por Tijuana y San Diego este flujo humano implica a 100 mil personas diarias, más de 30 millones al año. Y además del tránsito humano, está el comercial: se estima que cada jornada las respectivas aduanas son testigos del paso de 1.4 mil millones de dólares en mercancías, lo que hace de esta frontera la más importante del mundo en términos económicos. Para las entidades estadunidenses colindantes con México, un eventual cese de los intercambios sería simplemente catastrófico: en el caso de Texas, 463 mil empleos (y 94 mil millones de dólares) dependen del comercio con nuestro país a través de la frontera, y en California esa cifra crece hasta 692 mil puestos de trabajo.

Como resulta natural, las consecuencias de cortar o restringir el paso bilateral de los bienes y las personas dispara las alarmas en ambos lados de la frontera y generan una intensa presión de los organismos empresariales estadunidenses para asegurarse de que el político republicano, bajo ningún concepto, pase del dicho al hecho. No sólo el cabildeo se interpone entre Trump y sus nefastas intimidaciones: si bien el sistema presidencialista que rige en Washington otorga amplias facultades al jefe de Estado, también existe una serie de restricciones legales que impedirían o revertirían un cierre fronterizo unilateral. Éstas van desde la ausencia de cualquier posibilidad legal de impedir a los ciudadanos estadunidenses que regresen a su país desde México, hasta las previsiones en la materia contenidas en los estatutos del Tratado de Libre Comercio de América del Norte, pasando por el antecedente de la revocación judicial de su intento de prohibir la entrada a ciudadanos de naciones de mayoría musulmana.

Lamentablemente, ni siquiera es necesario que las amenazas del inquilino de la Casa Blanca lleguen a concretarse para que éstas produzcan ingentes daños, como demuestra la caída en la cotización del peso y la desaceleración en la Bolsa Mexicana de Valores en las horas posteriores a la serie de "tuits" en los que comunicó sus propósitos. Por los quebrantos materiales y humanos que acarrea –no sólo para México, sino para su propio país–, así como por la probada inutilidad de este tipo de medidas para refrenar los flujos migratorios, el conjunto de la clase política estadunidense debería hacer un llamamiento al magnate con la finalidad de que cese su uso político y propagandístico de un arma retórica que fácilmente puede salirse de control.
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