On the Path to Another War in the Middle East?

It is, of course, hoped that reason will prevail in Donald Trump’s administration and the ayatollahs’ regime in Tehran, and that yet another war won’t start in the Middle East. But as it is often said, if current trends continue, the chances of armed conflict will unfortunately continue to increase.

Since his election as president, Trump has been provoking Tehran through a series of measures including withdrawal from the nuclear deal and the imposition of economic sanctions, not to mention his insulting tweets. These provocations have reached new heights with the recent assassination of Iranian Gen. Qassem Soleimani. It’s as though Trump wants a war, too, to make his mark on history!

It is said that Trump does not listen to anyone, makes decisions based on his mood and has no strategy whatsoever. Unfortunately, that is not the case with the Iran issue, which leads us to fear the worst.

Many in Washington and the Middle East have a vested interest in seeing this new conflict emerge. First, the usual culprits—the American military-industrial lobby, as it is called, would certainly benefit from a new war, which enriches shareholders and promotes the development of new weapons. Then there are the oil companies that are already benefiting from the increase in oil prices.

Conservative think tanks and the Republican Party’s warmongers are already quivering with excitement at the thought of rallying behind the “commander-in-chief” to demonstrate the “return of America” before the next election. Who knows, perhaps the members of the American Evangelical Church, proud members of Trump’s “base,” who dream of Armageddon and the return of Christ, are hoping that the time has come … the religious fanatics, Mike Pompeo and Mike Pence, would be at the forefront …

The “Shiite Crescent”

In the Middle East, the leaders of the “Shiite Crescent,” who have witnessed their people’s exasperation toward them, are using the assassination of Soleimani to mobilize their populations. And what better way to distract them from their leaders’ corruption and incompetence than making a martyr of Soleimani! Gulf rulers will profit from the increase in oil prices in the short term, but may find themselves involved in the conflict, directly or indirectly.

Another person who must be delighted is Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has been trying very hard for years to push the Americans into military action against Tehran. He’s almost there. Come on, just a little bit more to go! As he faces possible imprisonment, a conflict would absolutely aid his political survival, especially if Israel is attacked.

Obviously, Trump believes that this war scenario will increase the chances of his reelection and make us forget his chaotic track record and his impeachment. We’ll see. This strategy could backfire. It is difficult to predict the reactions of voters who had been promised that the country wouldn’t be dragged into another costly war. The Iranians and their affiliates won’t let themselves be pushed around and can be a serious nuisance at an international level.

A war in a region with seemingly never-ending conflict would only bring suffering and destruction, as it always does. Let us hope for a surge of humanity and intelligence in these political leaders who are taking the region and the world to the brink of disaster.