Trump or Biden: Is That the Question?

The volatile nature of the U.S. election means that even now, the outcome is truly unpredictable. Up until the last minute, it is hard to make a definitive assessment of either candidate’s chance for victory, since even the day before the election, some disaster could strike that changes the vote of the American people. Unlike Europeans, Americans are rather inconsistent when it comes to political issues, and any sort of momentary feeling could change their vote.

The two U.S. parties do not share an ideological base, with the Republican Party focusing more on economic issues while the Democrats tend toward social issues. In addition to this, Americans are more influenced by domestic issues, specifically those that affect their everyday life. Foreign policy remains largely unimportant to them. Republicans look more toward policies internal to American society and place more value on economic issues, such as employment, taxes, wages and health insurance. It was for this reason that the Commission on Presidential Debates decided to change the focus of the second debate — which was supposed to be about foreign policy — to domestic topics.

Based on the polls so far, Joe Biden has a lead of about 10 points over Donald Trump. But in the eight to 12 states that are most important in deciding the outcome of the election, the polling gap is narrower: still in favor of Biden, but only by around four or five points.

Ultimately, the end goal of both parties’ policies is the same: bringing greatness to the U.S. and the rest of the world. The difference is in the path they wish to take to achieve these goals. In the second debate, there was even a brief exchange about Iran, in reference to the fact that Trump freely takes punitive action against Iran but does nothing with regard to Russia. As Biden has repeatedly admitted, Democrats are more favorably inclined toward China and opposed to Russia, while Republicans are the opposite, supporters of Russia and opponents of China.

But with regard to Iran, currently it is not really clear what Biden’s policy will be. Even though he says he will rejoin the nuclear agreement if he wins, the Biden nuclear agreement will be different from the Barack Obama nuclear agreement. Obama’s Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action dealt only with nuclear issues, but Biden will want his deal to also focus on peripheral issues like human rights, and it will be hard for Iran to meet his expectations. But while Trump has continued to impose sanctions, the president has declared that he is ready to negotiate in the months following his victory, and that he would certainly be more capable of negotiating, and more flexible, than the Democrats.

When it comes down to it, no matter who wins and what his expectations are, Iran is in a very sensitive spot. The Iranian people are having an increasingly harder time tolerating the economic difficulties and the lack of well-being brought about by sanctions that even hit bread and medicine. Because of this, it seems likely Iran will plan for two paths to negotiations, one if Biden becomes president and the other if Trump is reelected. Consequently, Iran must establish its national interest as the base of its foreign policy. A theory of “ideology at home and national interest abroad” can lead us to a more comfortable position. Our current position is not one that can endure in the age of COVID-19, and we need to plan accordingly.