Why Joe Biden Walks on Eggshells with Russia, but Bares His Claws to China
Published in L'Écho
(Belgium) on 17 July 2021
by Ian Bremmer (link to original)
(Belgium) on 17 July 2021
by Ian Bremmer (link to original)
Translated from
by Peter Lopatin.
Edited by Gillian Palmer.
The Biden administration is trying to prevent Russia from making headlines in order to concentrate on its increasingly contentious relations with China.
In the United States, everyone recognizes that President Donald Trump was extremely tough on China, but strangely accommodating with Russia. Critics faulted him because his tariff war with China was aggressive to the point of becoming harmful to the interests of the United States. Some also maintained that Trump and Vladimir Putin were, for reasons unknown, as thick as thieves.
Subsequently, when Joe Biden was elected president, the same experts predicted that the new president would change this strategy. Biden, they said, would show himself to be more indulgent toward China in order to increase the chances of establishing a potentially fruitful relationship, and would criticize Putin for having authorized his government to hack American elections and allowing Russian criminals to take American corporations hostage in exchange for ransom.
But when we examine the political choices carried out by their administrations rather than the political rhetoric and aggressive tweets of the persons in question, we discover that this analysis is totally outdated. Biden has turned out to be much harder than Trump on China, and friendlier toward Putin and Russia.
Let’s look at the evidence. After having invited Chinese President Xi Jinping to Mar-a-Lago to chat over a meal, Trump surely followed the advice of his advisers to appear more aggressive toward the growing power that is China. But he limited himself to two areas.
Obsessed by the American trade deficit with China and the political opportunities that that would create for him, Trump launched a trade war. He also underscored the aggressiveness of his administration toward China’s technological development and the threat that this represented for national security, in particular through restrictions imposed on Huawei, the Chinese technological leader.
Trump and his administration didn’t criticize China much for its human rights violations of the Muslims of Xinjiang — with the exception of some symbolic sanctions and some export controls — nor for its failure to respect the democracy of Hong Kong. And he didn’t make much of an effort to rally his Asiatic and European allies in order to work out a coordinated strategy aimed at containing China's increasingly aggressive behavior beyond its borders.
Beijing in the Crosshairs
Biden, for his part, considers China the main and most dangerous global menace to global democracy, individual liberties and national security. His administration has pursued the trade war declared by Trump. Sanctions and customs duties remain unchanged in order to increase negotiation leverage with China in other areas, and customs controls have even been intensified in order to up the ante.
While the initial meeting between Trump and Xi resembled at first an evening between friends in the sunny state of Florida, the Biden team met other members of the quartet resisting China — Japan, India and Australia — before a working meeting with Chinese officials in the cold of Alaska.
The new president also endeavored to bring the American approach to the 2020 Beijing winter Olympics in line with that of the European Union, the United Kingdom, Australia and Canada.
Whereas Trump complained of seeing China steal American industrial jobs, Biden launched a “Buy American” campaign aimed at encouraging American businesses to repatriate these jobs to the country. And while the former president criticized China for what he characterized as the “Chinese virus,” Biden endorsed an official inquiry on the “lab-leak” theory supposedly at the origin of the COVID-19 pandemic. All those who expected Biden to get more involved with China have been disappointed. The era of engagement is past, Biden’s principal Asia adviser recently indicated.
Putin, the 'Killer'
Trump and Biden's Russia policies have equally bewildered. Trump said numerous positive things about Putin, but his administration and members of the Republican Party in Congress have continuously adopted a tough approach toward Russia’s aggressive behavior. Sanctions were strengthened during the Trump years.
The former president opposed the Nord Stream 2 project, a Russian gas pipeline of strategic importance. His administration approved the sale of anti-tank missiles to Ukraine, knowing perfectly well that the first potential target of these missiles would be Russian tanks. Trump also increased the presence of American troops in Eastern Europe, principally in order to oblige Polish President Andrzej Duda, an admirer of Trump and critic of Putin. It is Trump who pulled the United States out of the intermediate nuclear arms treaty with Russia and refused to extend the New START arms control agreement.
Biden characterized Putin as a “killer,” but he has treated Russia with much more restraint than the Trump team. Anxious to create a more stable and more predictable relationship with Russia in order to focus American foreign policy on the threats posed by China, Biden quickly extended the New START treaty and lifted sanctions against Russian businesses involved in the construction of Nord Stream 2.
At the time of the meeting between Biden and Putin in Geneva, at the invitation of the American president, Biden insisted on maintaining cordial relations, in spite of the Russian “ransomware” attack on an oil pipeline and Russia’s support of the decision by Belarus to divert a European aircraft in order to arrest a political opponent.
Speech Is Not Action
Three lessons can be drawn from all this.
Firstly, rhetoric is one thing; actions are another. We should note when the first takes the place of the second.
Secondly, presidents and their administration don’t always adopt the same line. Trump wanted to improve relations with Russia, while no one on his team shared that approach.
Finally, changes in foreign policy are often a reflection of changes in the world. It is clearer today than four years ago that Xi wants to conduct a more assertive domestic policy. China’s progress in technological development, the assault on democracy in Hong Kong, further evidence of repression in Xinjiang and military pressure on Taiwan all demand a more energetic policy on the part of Washington and its allies.
For the moment, we can expect the Biden administration to try to keep Russia from making headlines in order to concentrate on its more and more contentious relations with China.
In the United States, everyone recognizes that President Donald Trump was extremely tough on China, but strangely accommodating with Russia. Critics faulted him because his tariff war with China was aggressive to the point of becoming harmful to the interests of the United States. Some also maintained that Trump and Vladimir Putin were, for reasons unknown, as thick as thieves.
Subsequently, when Joe Biden was elected president, the same experts predicted that the new president would change this strategy. Biden, they said, would show himself to be more indulgent toward China in order to increase the chances of establishing a potentially fruitful relationship, and would criticize Putin for having authorized his government to hack American elections and allowing Russian criminals to take American corporations hostage in exchange for ransom.
But when we examine the political choices carried out by their administrations rather than the political rhetoric and aggressive tweets of the persons in question, we discover that this analysis is totally outdated. Biden has turned out to be much harder than Trump on China, and friendlier toward Putin and Russia.
Let’s look at the evidence. After having invited Chinese President Xi Jinping to Mar-a-Lago to chat over a meal, Trump surely followed the advice of his advisers to appear more aggressive toward the growing power that is China. But he limited himself to two areas.
Obsessed by the American trade deficit with China and the political opportunities that that would create for him, Trump launched a trade war. He also underscored the aggressiveness of his administration toward China’s technological development and the threat that this represented for national security, in particular through restrictions imposed on Huawei, the Chinese technological leader.
Trump and his administration didn’t criticize China much for its human rights violations of the Muslims of Xinjiang — with the exception of some symbolic sanctions and some export controls — nor for its failure to respect the democracy of Hong Kong. And he didn’t make much of an effort to rally his Asiatic and European allies in order to work out a coordinated strategy aimed at containing China's increasingly aggressive behavior beyond its borders.
Beijing in the Crosshairs
Biden, for his part, considers China the main and most dangerous global menace to global democracy, individual liberties and national security. His administration has pursued the trade war declared by Trump. Sanctions and customs duties remain unchanged in order to increase negotiation leverage with China in other areas, and customs controls have even been intensified in order to up the ante.
While the initial meeting between Trump and Xi resembled at first an evening between friends in the sunny state of Florida, the Biden team met other members of the quartet resisting China — Japan, India and Australia — before a working meeting with Chinese officials in the cold of Alaska.
The new president also endeavored to bring the American approach to the 2020 Beijing winter Olympics in line with that of the European Union, the United Kingdom, Australia and Canada.
Whereas Trump complained of seeing China steal American industrial jobs, Biden launched a “Buy American” campaign aimed at encouraging American businesses to repatriate these jobs to the country. And while the former president criticized China for what he characterized as the “Chinese virus,” Biden endorsed an official inquiry on the “lab-leak” theory supposedly at the origin of the COVID-19 pandemic. All those who expected Biden to get more involved with China have been disappointed. The era of engagement is past, Biden’s principal Asia adviser recently indicated.
Putin, the 'Killer'
Trump and Biden's Russia policies have equally bewildered. Trump said numerous positive things about Putin, but his administration and members of the Republican Party in Congress have continuously adopted a tough approach toward Russia’s aggressive behavior. Sanctions were strengthened during the Trump years.
The former president opposed the Nord Stream 2 project, a Russian gas pipeline of strategic importance. His administration approved the sale of anti-tank missiles to Ukraine, knowing perfectly well that the first potential target of these missiles would be Russian tanks. Trump also increased the presence of American troops in Eastern Europe, principally in order to oblige Polish President Andrzej Duda, an admirer of Trump and critic of Putin. It is Trump who pulled the United States out of the intermediate nuclear arms treaty with Russia and refused to extend the New START arms control agreement.
Biden characterized Putin as a “killer,” but he has treated Russia with much more restraint than the Trump team. Anxious to create a more stable and more predictable relationship with Russia in order to focus American foreign policy on the threats posed by China, Biden quickly extended the New START treaty and lifted sanctions against Russian businesses involved in the construction of Nord Stream 2.
At the time of the meeting between Biden and Putin in Geneva, at the invitation of the American president, Biden insisted on maintaining cordial relations, in spite of the Russian “ransomware” attack on an oil pipeline and Russia’s support of the decision by Belarus to divert a European aircraft in order to arrest a political opponent.
Speech Is Not Action
Three lessons can be drawn from all this.
Firstly, rhetoric is one thing; actions are another. We should note when the first takes the place of the second.
Secondly, presidents and their administration don’t always adopt the same line. Trump wanted to improve relations with Russia, while no one on his team shared that approach.
Finally, changes in foreign policy are often a reflection of changes in the world. It is clearer today than four years ago that Xi wants to conduct a more assertive domestic policy. China’s progress in technological development, the assault on democracy in Hong Kong, further evidence of repression in Xinjiang and military pressure on Taiwan all demand a more energetic policy on the part of Washington and its allies.
For the moment, we can expect the Biden administration to try to keep Russia from making headlines in order to concentrate on its more and more contentious relations with China.
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