Taiwan in the Middle of a Cockfight

Why did Democratic House Speaker Nancy Pelosi go to Taiwan?

Why did Democratic House Speaker Nancy Pelosi go to Taiwan? Clever move? What was she trying to do by poking a hornet’s nest? Some say it was a successful strategy to take the measure of the Asian (and world) giant. It may also represent support — illusory? — for a small democracy over which China takes pride in being the lord and master.

Let’s start by saying that the days of the decades-old if not centuries-old international order have changed from when Asian nations, including China, had to endure the physical occupation and influence of superpowers like the United Kingdom and the United States but were unable to say or do anything about it. Today, China and other Asian countries are political forces in every sense of the word and are no longer constrained to watch from the sidelines.

But it would appear that Democratic members of Congress, starting with their leader, don’t understand it this way. Or perhaps they do understand it completely, but because it is becoming a diatribe for domestic consumption, and the 2024 election is on their minds, they prefer to ignore it, apparently not without risk, and so much so that several reputable academic and media sources have noted that U.S government leaders, including President Joe Biden himself, tried to dissuade the speaker from traveling to Taiwan.

It should be understood, to a certain point, that the decline in U.S. power has forced it to strut and swagger, sometimes with no real substance or rigor. But just as displays courage or preens its feathers, it is subject to other uncertainties, and Pelosi would have had to know that. Particularly because we are living in a time when China is certainly also being forced to show what it’s made of, just like a fighting rooster. That is, the situation is not one in which U.S. officials could challenge the Chinese government, confident there would not be consequences, but to the contrary: It was quite certain that the Chinese government was going to react. Still, Pelosi visited the island of Taiwan.

And yes, the regime of the Great Dragon of the East has already reacted by launching live-fire missiles into the waters surrounding Taiwan and flying over its territory, along with imposing economic sanctions and new trade restrictions for the island.

That said, what will this game of bluff between the two opponents lead to? How serious will the consequences be? Possibly not as serious or as close to open warfare as the Taiwanese people and that region of Asia have endured before. But in any case, if something significant occurs, Taiwan, as usual — not the U.S. and not China — will end up paying the price. And that is why I say the analogy is as if that country were a chicken thrown into the middle of a cockfight.

In any case, there is shared guilt. The U.S. is guilty because it unnecessarily endangers the stability of the region and the integrity of the Taiwanese nation to leverage the Democratic Party in advance of coming elections. China is guilty because it has overreacted to something that really is not that significant, that is, the fact that a United States congresswoman visited Taiwan. Xi Jinping’s government is fueling its own cause for nationalistic ends, that’s for sure.