China’s Signal to America

China is demonstrating that it can intrude on American airspace at any time. Washington is not shooting down the balloon, showing that it does not want the situation to escalate. Hopefully both sides will stay sane.

[Editor’s Update: The U.S. shot down the Chinese spy balloon on Saturday, Feb. 4, 2023 after this article was published, once the balloon moved off the coast and over the Atlantic Ocean following five days over the United States.]

Spying is as old as humanity. Accordingly, it is incumbent on all powers to refrain from descending into moral outrage when another spy case comes to light. This is the kind of rational behavior that the governments in Washington and Beijing are displaying in the case of the balloon that is traveling across the western United States 45 miles above earth over a region that is home to important American military installations.

The official Chinese response to the U.S. announcement that it had detected the balloon was predictable. China asserted the balloon was a weather device that had gone astray — it was, in other words, a civilian object.

Neither Side Wants Escalation Now

A balloon is only at first glance an antiquated means of spying that does not belong in the age of satellites. A balloon can observe its target over a much longer timeframe than a satellite. More important, however, is the political signal that the balloon is sending to Washington. China is showing the Americans that it is capable of intruding on American airspace at any time.

The U.S., on the other hand, is showing that it can detect such intrusions quickly and is capable of shooting down such an object. That it is choosing not to is a signal to Beijing. Clearly, neither side is interested in escalation right now. But the flexing of muscles continues. The world must hope that both sides continue to stay sane.