U.S. intelligence agencies reported this weekend that China was considering providing military aid to Russia. According to Mika Aaltola, America’s intelligence information has held up well.
Director of the Finnish Institute of International Affairs Mika Aaltola does not currently believe it’s likely that China will send military aid to Russia.
“It’s one option that China has laid on the table. They want to signal that the West has certain limits in regard to Russia,” Aaltola said.
CIA Director Bill Burns told CBS News that China is considering supplying arms to Russia. However, China has not made a final decision on delivery and has not delivered any arms so far, Burns said.
According to Burns, the U.S. is making this information public because it wants to deter China from supplying weapons. Aaltola considers U.S. intelligence to be reliable, noting, for example, that its information about the Russian attack a year ago was 100% accurate.
According to Aaltola, the United States now wants to draw a red line for China and communicate that exporting weapons would have consequences. “China, the tiger of the East, is in a state of hesitation. They know that what happens in Ukraine has consequences for the future of Asia and China.”
While the West is determined that Ukraine must not be allowed to lose, China believes that Russia must not be allowed to lose, Aaltola says. As a result, China may be prepared to take the side of the aggressor, even if it violates international law.
On the other hand, China is inclined to stay involved in the international economic system and avoid potential U.S. sanctions. China’s international rise has been based on the fact that other countries have moved their production to China. According to Aaltola, China also has ambitions in its own neighborhood.
“U.S. intelligence has also indicated that China is building up their capability to invade Taiwan by 2027. One war can fuel others, as has often happened in world history,” he said.
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