A question to ask today is whether the world was safer a few dozen years ago when it was dominated by the two great superpowers, the United States and the Soviet Union, which watched each other closely but avoided direct conflict.
That stage of the Cold War wound up favoring the U.S., which became the first great power after the fall of the Berlin Wall and the dissolution of the Soviet Union. Since then, that world — once divided into two large blocks — has been transformed into a multipolar world with new phenomena, such as the growth and rise of China as a great power and the increasing influence of the Arab economies of the Persian Gulf.
At the same time, the United States has lost power, a truth best exemplified by its shameful exit from Afghanistan, planned by Donald Trump and executed under Joe Biden.
The lacerating conflict in Ukraine, now having lasted for 20 months, and the war recently started by Israel in Gaza after the Hamas terrorist attacks leave the world in a situation of great instability.
The U.N., established to avoid these global conflicts, is not there nor is its arrival expected; its decision-making capacity is more than limited. Condemnations by this body no longer arouse even the slightest interest. Its power of influence to contain or stop a war is nonexistent. When an expected conflict fails to start in the Sahel, an old one — as in Nagorno-Karabakh —intensifies. And everyone holds their breath about the future of Taiwan given the foreseeable invasion of China.
Nevertheless, the United States continues to be the leading power and is an active player in the Ukraine and Israel conflicts. It is helping Ukraine with weapons and will continue to do so in Israel.
But the threat of Trump’s return to the presidency in November 2024 is no illusion. His potential presence would contribute to and cause even more disorder on the planet. It is clear that we are moving toward a multipolar world with greater latent danger.