American Desires Meet Israeli Determination

U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin would like to transition to more “surgical” operations in the Gaza Strip. However, the government in Tel Aviv is likely willing to make only minor changes in its strategy.

The war in Gaza has been raging for 75 days, and in the urgent search for a way out, every word is weighed in the balance. U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin spoke of a coming transition to more “surgical” operations during his visit to Tel Aviv, but this is likely less an announcement and more a continuation of the United States’ desire for an Israeli combat operation that claims fewer civilian victims. However, Israel insists on the objective of its war: the destruction of Hamas. Israel’s Minister of Defense Joav Gallant is now sending a small sign of hope after all.

“I can tell you that soon we will be able to distinguish between different areas in Gaza,” he explained at a joint press appearance with Austin. His outlook is that “in every area where we achieve our mission, we will be able to transition gradually to the next phase,” during which Israel can direct the population back to Gaza.

Judging from the course of the war so far, this probably means that the inhabitants who fled from the north might return to the region, which has been largely destroyed in the meantime. This would make it easier for the Israeli army to keep fighting in the south, which has so far been completely overwhelmed.

The United States Would Like an End to the Hot Combat Phase within Weeks

However, no one wants to commit to a timeline. According to media reports citing American and Israeli sources, the United States is pushing for an end to the hot combat phase within a few weeks. However, the U.S. will exert pressure in this direction behind the scenes at most. Austin clarified in Tel Aviv that “this is Israel’s operation,” and he is “not here to dictate timelines or terms.”

Israel, itself, is preparing for a long operation. Calls for a ceasefire on the part of the United Nations and allies will be seen as unwanted interference or a model for Hamas. The government is prepared for only a temporary adjustment of combat operations under one condition: that hostages are released.

A first agreement mediated by Qatar at the end of November led to a seven-day ceasefire, in which 80 kidnapped Israeli women and children were exchanged for 240 Palestinian prisoners. Additionally, 24 hostages from Southeast Asia and a young man with Russian citizenship were released. Since then, however, hostages have been returned to Israel only in coffins, and pressure on the government for a new deal with Hamas has increased significantly after three hostages were shot last Friday due to a fatal misjudgment by Israel’s own army.

Hamas Is Exploiting Israeli Hostages as Psychological Warfare

There are a reported 129 hostages remaining in Gaza, however, Israel’s army says 21 of them are dead based on intelligence. Fears are growing that the number of victims could rise with each day of fighting — and Hamas knows how to use that to its psychological benefit. On Monday evening, a new video was released with three male hostages between the ages of 79 and 84. One of the hostages addresses Israel’s leadership directly, saying, “You have to get us out of here at any cost.”

Now, the parties will at least negotiate again how high the cost should be, even if the positions are still quite far apart. Israel is reportedly prepared to release even Palestinian prisoners who have “blood on their hands,” for a new agreement. However, Hamas has declared that not only must all Palestinian prisoners be freed in exchange for the release of all hostages taken from Israel, but it also wants to tie the hostage issue to a ceasefire that ends the war and thereby secures its own survival.

For Israel, that is simply unacceptable. Israel says its weapons will fall silent only when Hamas no longer has any military and civil control over the Gaza Strip. The much talked about “day after” — the time after the war — still seems far off. Overall, there is no coordinated effort for that.

Israel’s government has so far rejected all proposals for the future of the Gaza Strip. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu insists on future Israeli security control; however, beyond that he has only said what he does not want: the participation of the Palestinian National Authority and a negotiation process that could lead to a two-state solution.

However, Israeli TV station Channel 12 is now citing a secret document prepared by the foreign ministry about the future of Gaza, which provides that Palestinians should “govern themselves with no capacity to threaten Israel.” International organizations, as well as local forces that have nothing to do with Hamas, would be integrated into the administration. As things stand now, this is nothing more than a conceptual exercise; however, it nevertheless points to an initial move by the Israeli government regarding the question of what happens on that “day after?”