Trump Is Already Destroying the Western Alliance

If the former president returns to power, NATO would be as good as dead – but the same thing will happen if the aid package for Ukraine finally fails in Congress.

There was no prepared announcement, and the conversation with an unnamed European head of state that Donald Trump reported on at a campaign event over the weekend never actually occurred. Trump wanted once again to be the strongman that everyone fears. He boasted that “one of the presidents of a big country” asked him whether the U.S. would defend them from a Russian invasion if they did not pay their NATO bill; the former president said, “In fact, I would encourage them (Russia) to do whatever the hell they want. You got to pay. You got to pay your bills.” Afterward, the money flowed in, the Republican candidate enthused.

But the throwaway line generated panic in Europe. The problem is not only that evidently, Trump has no idea how the Western alliance is financed — via national budgets and not via payments to the U.S. — but also that he is more concerned about the prospect of America being ripped off by its friends instead of any geopolitical danger.

Trump’s performance reflects his entire world view: his conviction that foreign policy is only a form of business and his willingness to take even the worst tyrants — whether Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping or Kim Jong Un — as allies if it serves his interests. It’s a transactional way of thinking. Trump is not alone in this. The current head of state in China and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan also think similarly. This approach is legitimate in a world where every state fights for itself.

Wave of Protectionism

An alliance such as NATO is built on long-term commitments that shouldn’t be discarded. Trump would probably have already destroyed the alliance during his term in office if a crisis had given him reason to do so. Luckily for both him and the world, in terms of global politics, it was fairly quiet during his four years. However, his determined unilateralism undermined the World Trade Organization trading system and contributed to a new wave of protectionism. If Trump returns to the White House next year, the Western security architecture will face the same fate, with worse consequences than just higher tariffs. The U.S. would then not even need to leave NATO because it would be as good as dead.

Europeans know this but don’t have a good answer. Such an alliance cannot function without a leading power, and one doesn’t exist in Europe. Even a higher defense budget would be useless. Under a second Trump term, Western democracies in Europe and East Asia would be helpless against their enemies, who would literally be able to do “whatever the hell they want.”

Perhaps U.S. voters will come to their senses by November and prevent this scenario, although foreign policy is playing a diminishing role in U.S. election campaigns.

The scenario people fear could come to pass sooner than Election Day.The Senate made a second attempt to craft an aid package worth billions for Ukraine and Israel, a package Trump vehemently opposed. If it fails in the House of Representatives, the U.S. will no longer be a leading power under Joe Biden. A Trump victory would then only be confirmation. In the coming days, the future of the world order may be at stake.