The presidential election in November will come down to Joe Biden versus Donald Trump. However, Nikki Haley, the traditional conservative Republican, has been able to mobilize support for herself in areas where people are not so fond of the right-leaning populist Trump.
Not all votes have been counted yet. But after Super Tuesday — which is the biggest event in the U.S. primary campaign battle with voting in 15 states — the race to decide the Democratic and Republican presidential nominee will be decided: In two weeks at the latest, Joe Biden and Donald Trump are likely to have secured the absolute majority for their formal nominations in the summer.*
It all boils down to a repeat of the 2020 duel, but with the roles reversed: back then Biden threw the incumbent Trump out of the White House, but now Trump is pushing his way back into the Oval Office. Even if the enthusiasm of the American people for this political rematch is noticeably low, the choice should be clear: Biden can point to good economic figures as president. He is a man with empathy, and he united NATO in the Ukraine war. On the other hand, Trump wants to use his candidacy, not least, as a means of avoiding prosecution on 91 felony criminal charges. He employs fascist rhetoric to incite hatred against those who think differently, and he encourages Russia to invade NATO-allied countries.
Nevertheless, according to a recent New York Times poll, at the moment, 48% of Americans would vote for Trump and only 43% would vote for Biden. The reasons for the dissatisfaction with the 81-year-old president are many. They range from concerns about his age and immigration policies to inflation and the war in Gaza. After Michigan, the fact that a double-digit percentage of Democrats also voted as “uncommitted” in the Minnesota primary in protest against support for the bloody Israeli military offensive must be an alarm bell for the president.
Optimists are challenging that, since the general election campaign hasn’t even begun, saying these are just snapshots. Many citizens have forgotten what the daily insanity of Trump’s presidency was like. To the extent that the narcissist is once again dominating the headlines with his outbursts and court proceedings are exposing his behavior, the pendulum will swing back if Biden highlights his successful of his policies, which he is likely to do in his State of the Union address this Thursday.
Not Everyone Is Satisfied
The support that Nikki Haley, Trump’s more traditional conservative challenger, was able to mobilize shows that not all conservative voters are happy with the right-leaning populist candidate. But, even with Haley’s surprise victory in Vermont, the win is nowhere close to being big enough to bring the former U.N. ambassador anywhere near a majority at the convention. Haley’s campaign is over. Even if the 52-year-old candidate doesn’t concede in the coming days, her campaign funds are likely to run out soon.
But, the big question remains: What will her supporters do now? Will they actually refrain from voting for Trump, as some polls have indicated Will they maybe stay at home on Nov. 5? This would weaken the former president, especially in the suburbs. Or like pretty much all of the Republican establishment, will they just end up supporting the candidate, with relativelyk flimsy excuses?
Much will depend on how Haley positions herself. She has already changed her position on Trump several times in the past. Recently however, she has increasingly openly denounced the mental, moral and political shortcomings of her opponent. Conversely, Trump has slandered and insulted her, and has mocked her husband. Should Haley now kiss the political godfather’s ring or even pledge to serve him? This would betray her supporters — and would be the final nail in the coffin for the once proud Grand Old Party.
*Editor’s Note: Former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden each clinched their party’s nominations on Super Tuesday, March 12, 2024.
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