Bernie and Taylor Are Decisive

The university protests are not dangerous for President Joe Biden. If he wants to win the election, he needs influencers — and the stock market, on which many people’s retirement plans depend.

The signs are, well, not good. Before the November election, President Joe Biden is trapped in multiple ways: between Israel extremists and Palestine protests, between party establishment and young progressives, between Donald Trump and an errant Kennedy scion. Biden is behind in the polls, even if only narrowly. And on top of that he is celebrating his 82nd birthday on Nov. 20. So how bleak are the prospects for American democracy?

In any case, they are better than the current mood. Biden can win this election. There are just a few things that need to come together. In particular, he needs the Federal Reserve and two influencers: one old and one young. As far as the election is concerned, the college protests are overemphasized. Of course, to win the election, Biden should not stumble so often or mix up heads of state anymore (no, François Mitterrand does not lead in Paris anymore).

Since Special Counsel Robert Hur passed the devastating judgment of a “sympathetic, well-meaning, elderly man with a poor memory,” in a report, Biden has fought against a gerontocratic image. The nightmare would be a fall from the steps of Air Force One. However, the battle over abortion is helping him, which from a European perspective seems so 1980s, but in the United States has become a part of the big culture war. Women’s right to choose is mobilizing the Democratic sphere.

Experts are not in agreement on the role that Robert Kennedy Jr. could play in the election. Some are warning that RKJ, a Kennedy after all, could draw young voters and Latino voters from Biden’s sphere. Others see Trump’s campaign under pressure here. One-on-one, Trump is running slightly ahead of Biden. But when all independent candidates including Kennedy are [included in] polls, Biden recently had a slight lead. However, all this counts for little as long as the stock market is not right.

A Young Woman — And an Old White Man as a Recipe for Success

A majority of Americans count on tax-exempt, equity-based pension plans called 401(k)s for their retirement. If the stock market is doing well, Americans look to the future with more security. This is generally attributed to the incumbent president. If the Fed were to lower interest rates one more time before the election and the stock market rose in response, it could decisively bolster confidence in Biden.

The Dow Jones is only a little below its historical peak with around 38,300 points. What Biden is still missing are credible messengers. The old president will support himself with an entire army of young social media influencers. He will surround himself with young Democrats, with women and people of color. However, Biden’s possibly most valuable assets are a young woman — and an old white man from Vermont.

Independent Sen. Bernie Sanders, a long-time companion in the Senate, embodies not just everything that young progressives (on the coasts) value: determination in the fight against the climate crisis, a hint of socialism and criticism of Biden’s Israel policy. Sanders is credible in his proximity to the workforce, his dedication to justice and brave ideas for the welfare state (in the heartland). In 2016, Sanders ran as a candidate opposing Hillary Clinton within the party.

Michigan, Wisconsin and Nevada

Then the Bernie sphere turned away from Clinton, the elite. Trump won the election. And Sanders learned his lesson. Now, he is traveling across the country as a messenger for Biden, praising the president’s social achievements and criticizing his insufficiently progressive profile. Surely, a cease-fire in Gaza and an end to the dying would calm the boiling mood among the American left and Arab Americans.

Michigan in particular, with its large Arab community, poses a problem to which Democrats are already giving significant attention. It is less relevant to Biden whether college campuses are occupied in L.A. or New York. Elections are won in swing states, in Michigan, Wisconsin or Nevada — not on the coasts.

A second influencer could become the X-factor: Taylor Swift, biggest pop star in the world, her new album at No. 1, her boyfriend wins the Super Bowl. It doesn’t get much more glamorous. Swift has already positioned herself once as pro-Biden. If she does it again, old Joe will suddenly look like he’s not 81, but a few years younger. Perhaps those would be decisive years.