End of Ukrainian War in Sight: Peace Is Possible

President-elect Donald Trump wants to negotiate an end to the war. However absurd that may sound, it could open room for negotiations.

Speculation is rife about negotiating an end to the war in Ukraine. All eyes will be on Donald Trump’s inauguration Jan. 20. Will he be able to bring about a change? Surely, he won’t do so in a day.

Trump’s approach so far suggests he wants to be in control of the proceedings. People are therefore speculating that Trump is angling for a Vladimir Putin-friendly solution. However, this overlooks the fact that Trump wants to be loved and admired, which is why he might not propose a solution that is too one-sided. Trump wants success, which is why he invariably expects and projects a willingness to compromise.

At any rate, Trump has at least put the question of negotiating an end to the conflict back on the agenda. While Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Ukraine would not legally recognize any territorial concessions, the president’s most recent agreement that Ukraine would initially accept Russian control could suggest a path to a cease-fire acceptable to Russia. On the other hand, Russia should not persist in fully integrating the four provinces that Putin annexed in 2022 into Russian territory in addition to the militarily occupied territories.

Zelenskyy’s demand for NATO membership makes it even more challenging. Russia is unlikely to accept this demand or continued deployment of NATO troops and military infrastructure in Ukraine since the war was meant to prevent the Western alliance from advancing toward Russia and integrating Ukraine.

Security Guarantees for Ukraine

However, a solution needs to be found that provides security guarantees for Ukraine. Creativity knows no bounds here; for example, it is also worth considering demilitarized zones on both sides of the point of contact or borders under the control of a peacekeeping force including the key states in the Global South, and the sustained rearmament of Ukraine with effective defensive equipment manufactured in the West.

It would, of course, be wrong for the EU to continue to rely solely on a military victory for Ukraine, as EU’s high representative for foreign affairs and security, Kaja Kallas, still does. As understandably emotional as this may be, it does not align with the actual capabilities of the EU and the real escalation risks posed by Russia.

Integration of Russia

There is no point in lamenting how wicked Putin is; it is more important that Europe is capable of effectively deterring Russia from military attacks and aggression. Trump, who seems to care only about the fate of the U.S., may be working to marginalize Russia, while we Europeans are ultimately interested in reintegrating Russia into a peaceful Europe.

Therefore, discussion aimed at resolving problems such as exploring cooperative arms control agreements and stabilizing Russia’s relationship with other countries and regions worldwide remains a central task for the EU regardless the significant challenges that exist. Accordingly, Europe should not act alone or solely in conjunction with the U.S. Instead, it should strive to involve other countries, such as China, as well as key players from the Global South, namely Brazil and South Africa.