Trump’s Vanity Will Decide the War’s Course*

Since the talks began, there has been little reason to hope for a swift cease-fire agreement. Russia’s radical view of the war allows little room for compromise. But does the U.S. president appreciate this too? And what role does his affinity for Vladimir Putin play?

In conventional wisdom, the very fact that talks have opened ought to indicate that the war in Ukraine is approaching its end. Having staged Ukraine’s mock subjugation to its terms (accepting the rare minerals deal and keeping quiet), the White House was ready to entertain the aggressor’s negotiating position, which has about as much substance as sickly sweet confectionery and candied old chestnuts. Even when communicating through special envoys, Vladimir Putin probably only ever conveys his warm regards, and nothing more consequential.

There will now be many interpretations of exactly what should be read into Putin's conditions for a cease-fire. Surrendering in Kursk, halting arming and support for Ukraine, holding fresh elections — and fundamental systemic matters — potentially extending all the way to demanding the breakup of NATO. The prospectus does not reveal any increased willingness to compromise nor any realization that Russia cannot win this war and should relinquish its grand revanchist project to redraw the European order.

Unacceptable Conditions

By the same token, the negotiations might easily come to an end. Ukraine will not, and cannot, consider these conditions. And, even after three years of a war that has killed and injured hundreds of thousands, Putin shows such manifest ideological obduracy as to exclude the prospect that reason might prevail during his lifetime. The things that can help make a difference now are reinforcing Ukraine’s front lines, strengthening its drone and missile defenses, and, not least, politically signaling that Ukraine will not be left isolated.

It will not be as simple as that, however. To stick with Trump’s favored card game metaphor, Putin has not yet finished playing his hand. Putin seeks to draw Trump into his intellectual orbit, which is itself consistently closer to the U.S. president’s own way of thinking than that of Volodymyr Zelenskyy or Ukraine’s allies. Putin is still capable of sowing a little doubt and discord, not to mention deliberate provocation. As such, he affects an obliging, but not submissive, demeanor. Admittedly, he cannot risk appearing too recalcitrant. Trump instinctively responds to insubordination in a mean and unpredictable manner. But Putin, the master manipulator, will understand this well.

Trump, on the other hand, has already delivered far more than the Russian dictator could have ever imagined. The Euro-Canadian wing of the North Atlantic alliance is preparing itself for a future without the United States, while a lack of leadership and resolve makes Europe a soft target for attacks of an ideological and divisive nature. The dismantling of the Western security architecture, which Putin so desires, has been underway for some time. Perhaps the United States will leave the NATO alliance without needing any Russian encouragement — there have been ample warning signs to that effect already. And all the while, Ukraine was merely the pawn in some grand strategic game. It will require a tremendous effort on Europe’s part to turn around the country’s fate by itself.

Sooner than expected, the “negotiation” has circled back to where it began: in the White House. The aggressor, the victim and putative peacemaker, Trump, have predictably gone around the arguments without an agreement miraculously transpiring. This is why so much is at stake. It depends on Trump’s next move. His advisers will counsel him against trusting Putin. Yet his instinct will draw him closer to the Russian despot, whom he regards as a kindred spirit and fellow victim-in-chief. Whatever ideas take shape inside Trump’s head over the next few days will prove decisive for the course of the war, in the worst sense of the word.

*Editor’s Note: This article is available in its original German with a paid subscription.