The Philippines Overestimates Its Worth to the US

Having just returned from the U.S., President Aquino III of the Philippines enthusiastically joined in celebrations for the 114th anniversary of his country’s independence. He mostly likely could not have guessed that at the same moment, the Filipino people were taking to the streets to condemn America’s interference in Philippine internal affairs. Hundreds fought with riot police as bottles and batons flew near the U.S. Embassy.

The scene highlighted the contradictions within the Philippines’ posture towards the United States. The government hopes to work more closely with the U.S. and join together to contain China’s reach to the south, all while the Filipino people pay the price. Bananas dumped into the ocean, the decline of tour groups from China, and even the refusal of a basketball team partly owned by Yao Ming, who normally keeps his hands clean of politics and military affairs, to play friendlies in the Philippines, have made the hard-working Filipino people eminently aware of the bleak future looming ahead.

President Aquino had lost face. If his visit to America had not been snubbed, at the very least it had been a disappointment. He had hoped to obtain a promise from the U.S., per the mutual defense treaty signed by the two nations in 1951, that it would lend its assistance in the Philippines’ dispute with China in the South China Sea, which would make the Philippines one of America’s pawns in its return to Asia. However, neither President Obama nor Secretary of State Hillary Clinton fulfilled his wish.

This is not to say that the U.S. will no longer seek to check China, or that Chinese diplomatic efforts towards the U.S. have been sufficiently persuasive, but rather that China, the Philippines and the U.S. all have a different “South China Sea” in mind. The three sides’ views occasionally cross but do not overlap, which has resulted in the current confusion.

China’s envisioned South China Sea is one that belongs to China but is developed jointly; “my house, my rules.” The Philippines’ ideal South China Sea is one delineated based upon the Law of the Sea Convention, with the area up to 200 nautical miles out from the coastline being an exclusive economic zone of the Philippines. The preferred South China Sea of the U.S. is international waters with unclear sovereignty, where China and the Philippines’ island dispute is a minor issue, and as long as a military confrontation does not occur and American merchants and warships can pass freely, it is enough for the U.S. to maintain its leadership role.

When compared, China and the U.S. have different understandings on sovereignty within the South China Sea, but share common ground in their efforts to preserve peace in the region, which is actually more than the U.S. and the Philippines agree upon. The U.S. knows very well that China far outweighs the Philippines on the scales of its global strategy. China is a giant, in markets, purchasing power, finance and influence, while the Philippines is easily dismissed. Within the myriad events which the U.S. concerns itself with, from the Iranian nuclear issue to events on the Korean Peninsula, China is a major and integral player.

Whether the future will be smooth sailing or stormy seas will be decided by China and the U.S. The visible trend is that tensions are rising in the region. China’s strength is growing, so it must ensure that economic arteries remain free and that it has access to natural resources, while America’s return to Asia must gradually progress. The strategic clash of interests between the two powers in the South China Sea is obvious, but peace in the area benefits all parties involved.

For now, the Philippines and other countries have begun to make strategic adjustments, and the coming period will be crucial in deciding whether they face reality and take a proactive stance on negotiations to resolve the issue in the South China Sea, or prolong the confrontation.