America’s Phantom Shadow Influences Japan’s China Policy

Published in Zhejiang Daily
(China) on 18 August 2012
by Liu Weidong (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Caroline Moreno. Edited by Adam Talkington.
Recently, Japan has demonstrated a clearly offensive posture towards China, actively following the United States in meddling in China's South Sea matters and proactively establishing strategic cooperative relationships aimed at containing China with Australia, India and other countries. When the Huangyan Island conflict between China and the Philippines was in full swing, [Japan] donated twelve patrol boats to the Philippines and incessantly provoked [China] on the Diaoyu Islands problem. National defense documents explicitly stress the worry of a so-called "military threat" from China. Moreover, Japan is conducting "recapturing the Ryukyu Islands" military exercises with the United States. The present relationship between China and Japan is completely opposite from the honeymoon period between the two when the Japanese Democratic Party first came into power. The tension now is even greater than it was during the reign of the Liberal Democratic Party.

The current contradictions between China and Japan appear difficult to reconcile. Economic and trade issues such as territory disputes revolving around Diaoyu Islands, natural resources competition revolving around East China Sea demarcation, the gradually escalating arguments over the South China Sea, conflicts regarding China's rare earth exports, Japanese investments in China and so on are causing the contradictions between China and Japan to deepen continuously. Comparatively speaking, during the time of Koizumi, historically recognized conflicts between China and Japan mainly reflected the issue of "face," but now, historical problems have temporarily withdrawn from the stage and Sino-Japanese contradictions have shifted to more core conflict of interest spheres, indicating that the future relationship between China and Japan will be difficult to calm.

Obviously, the ever-flashing American shadow is behind Japan's shift to aggression towards China. As the country that is most influential towards China and Japan, but whose interests and demands are also completely different than those two countries, the United States has always played the role of a foreign balancer, arbitrator and leader. For America, China and Japan each have different values. With the continuous rise of China's real strength and international influence, America has become more and more dependent on China's cooperation in resolving international problems; yet at the same time, this has also intensified America's anxiety about China. Japan's real economic strength and international position are gradually declining, and this has forced Japan to become more dependent on the United States, and led it to curry America's favor and cooperate with America even more proactively. Thus, when it needs to resolve international difficulties, America looks to China; when it needs to put China in check, America looks to Japan. Through adjusting its respective distances between China and Japan, the United States regulates and controls the East Asia security structure.

Japan has its own reasons for being tough on China. In East Asian history, [Japan] emerged unparalleled in the power struggle. So, China's sudden rise has made it difficult for Japan to adapt. Japan also lacks the real strength to directly oppose China, so it can only seek the favor of America by actively serving as America's pawn. In doing so, it can draw support from America to oppose China. On another front, Japan can also use its increased value in the U.S.-Japan alliance to its advantage and strengthen its bargaining ability with America. At the same time, Japanese domestic popular opinion provides strong support for Japan being tough on China. After the boat collision incident, Japan's favorable opinion of China suffered a disastrous decline and has wavered for a long time and reached an all-time low. This also gives the Japanese government the confidence to be tough on China.

But Japan's provocations are limited. In one respect, economic interests are the core of this country's existence. Japan has no way to bear the economic stress that a true loss of favor with China would bring. From another point of view, the contradictions between the United States and Japan will ultimately force Japan to choose a middle road. The trilateral relationship between China, America and Japan maintains a kind of fundamental balance in accordance with everyone's interests. Therefore, [China] needs to treat Japan's provocations dialectically.


美国魅影影响日对华政策   
近来日本表现出明显的对华进攻态势:积极追随美国插手中国南海事务,主动与澳大利亚和印度等国建立旨在围堵中国的战略合作关系,在中菲黄岩岛争端正酣之际赠予菲律宾12艘巡逻艇,在钓鱼岛问题上不断挑衅,在国防文件中明确强调对华所谓“军事威胁”的担心,并与美国进行“夺回西南诸岛”的军事演习……与日本民主党上台初期的中日蜜月期相比,当前的中日关系完全走向了反面,其中的张力甚至超过了自民党执政时期。
当前中日之间的矛盾看似难以调和。围绕着钓鱼岛问题的领土争端,围绕着东海划界问题的资源争夺,在南海问题上逐步升级的较量,以及在包括中国稀土出口、日本在华投资等经贸问题上的冲突,使得中日之间的矛盾呈现出不断深化的特征。比较而言,小泉时期中日的历史认识冲突主要体现在面子问题上,而现在历史问题暂时退出了舞台,中日矛盾转向了更为核心的利益冲突领域,预示着未来的中日关系难以平静。
显然,在日本对华变得咄咄逼人的背后,无时不闪现着美国的影子。作为对中日最有影响但利益需求又截然不同的国家,美国始终在发挥着域外平衡者、仲裁者和主导者的作用。对美国来说,中日各自的价值不同。随着中国的实力和国际影响力的不断提升,美国解决国际问题越来越离不开中国的配合,但这同时也加剧了美国对华的担忧;日本的经济实力和国际地位在逐步下降,这迫使其更为依附美国,也不得不更为积极地讨好配合美国。因此在需要解决国际难题时,美国就找中国;当需要制衡中国时,美国就去找日本,通过调整对中日各自的距离,美国调控着东亚安全格局。
日本对华强硬也有其自身的考虑。东亚历史上从无两强争锋的局面出现,中国的崛起让日本难以适应,但日本又缺乏与中国正面对抗的实力,只好借助于积极充当美国的马前卒来讨得美国的欢心,这一方面可以借助美国的支持来与中国对抗,另一方面也可以利用提高自身在美日同盟中的价值来增强对美讨价还价的能力。同时,日本国内民意也为其对华强硬提供了支撑,撞船事件发生后,日本对华好感度一落千丈且长期徘徊于低谷,这也赋予了日本政府对华强硬的底气。
  不过日本的挑衅也是有限度的,一方面经济利益是其国家生存的核心,日本无法承受中日真正交恶带来的经济压力;另一方面,美日矛盾最终也会迫使日本选择一条接近中间的道路,中美日三边关系保持一种基本的平衡符合所有人的利益。所以对于日本的挑衅也需辩证看待。(中国社科院美国研究所 刘卫东)
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